Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

Borussia Dortmund will host Atletico de Madrid in the UEFA Champions League second quarter-final match at the Signal Iduna Park Stadium. The fixture will take place on Wednesday, April 17, beginning at 00:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Borussia Dortmund News & Current Form: 

Borussia Dortmund find themselves once again in the quarter-finals of the premier continental championship this season. Under the guidance of Edin Terzic, they topped the challenging Group F, which also featured Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan, and Newcastle United FC. In the Round of 16, BVB had to work hard to overcome PSV Eindhoven: in the Netherlands, the Black and Yellows drew 1:1, but they seized victory with a 2:0 scoreline in the return leg at home.

Last week in Madrid, Borussia suffered a 2:1 defeat to Atletico. The opening minutes were harrowing for the German club’s fans as the hosts unleashed six shots (three on target) within 20 minutes, while the visitors struggled to even approach the Spanish club’s penalty area. Simeone’s men displayed a far more composed and tactically astute performance, exuding confidence in their play.

As a result, Atletico only needed four minutes to alter the scoreline. However, credit must be given to Borussia’s players: the sponsors of Atletico’s goal were Gregor Kobel and Ian Maatsen. The goalkeeper’s uncomfortable pass to the defender was pressed, leaving Rodrigo De Paul with only the goalkeeper to beat, which he did decisively. 

Subsequently, the opponent deployed their favoured and well-executed strategy, relying on a deep defence with sharp counterattacks. In the 32nd minute, Mats Hummels, instead of intercepting the pass, allowed the opponent space on their own half. In the dying moments of the first half, Antoine Griezmann provided a splendid pass to Samuel Lino, who calmly outplayed Kobel to make it 2:0.

After the first half, one question lingered: what is this Borussia doing in the Champions League quarter-finals? With a weak defensive display and a lack of attacking coherence, the visitors managed only one shot on target in the entire first half, and that came in the dying moments. Interestingly, Germans had more possession than their opponents (64% to 36%) during the game.

Sébastien Haller, who came on as a substitute in the second half, disappointed a considerable portion of the audience in Madrid. The CAF Africa Cup of Nations winner briefly lost possession but swiftly regained control and slotted a goal accurately into the corner. Interestingly, this marks only his third goal of the current season. Prior to this, the Ivorian had only scored in the DFB-Pokal, notably netting a brace against TSV Schott Mainz (6:1).

In the last moments of the meeting, Diego Simeone’s nerves were severely tested. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, also a substitute, unleashed a long-range strike that rattled the crossbar. The Argentine Atletico coach was visibly perturbed, nearly rushing onto the field. Then, in the fifth minute of added time, the German club had another chance, but the ball struck the woodwork after a header from Brandt. The final result of 2:1 leaves both teams with chances.

Edin Terzic made a mistake with the initial game plan in the 1st match. The 4-2-3-1 scheme was supposed to play as a number one, but there were no playmakers in the central zone – Felix Nmecha, who usually plays closer to the support zone, is more of a disruptor. In addition, the confused roles of the defenders led to fatal errors. The situation equalised after the substitutions, but there was not enough energy for the 2nd goal.

Regarding Borussia’s situation in the domestic championship, they were on the verge of clinching the Bundesliga title last year but this season has unfolded differently. They currently occupy the fifth position in the overall standings, level on points with RB Leipzig in fourth, vying for a Champions League spot. However, they trail the leading trio by seven points. After suffering a defeat at home to VfB Stuttgart (0:1) following four consecutive wins, they redeemed themselves by overcoming Borussia Monchengladbach (1:2).

After a challenging first half of the season marked by tactical adjustments and personnel changes, Terzic has addressed the shortcomings and enhanced the attacking flexibility. For instance, Emre Can operates as the lone defensive midfielder, providing additional options in attack. This allows the central defenders to play long vertical passes forward or build attacks through the wings. Borussia utilise the flanks, aiming to penetrate the opponent’s penalty area through shots or dribbles, with the Germans failing to score only in one of their last ten matches.

The primary sharpshooter under Terzic’s tutelage is Donyell Malen (13 goals and 5 assists in all competitions), while the leaders in combined goals and assists are Julian Brandt (8 goals and 14 assists) and Niclas Fullkrug (12 goals and 10 assists). The quartet of the most valuable attacking players is completed by the veteran Marco Reus, who has contributed 7 goals and 7 assists.

As Borussia approach the crucial phase of the 2023/24 campaign, they are in decent form and crucially, without significant personnel losses. Defender Ramy Bensebaini, absent in the first leg, is expected to miss the return leg due to injury. Otherwise, the coaching staff can rely on an optimal lineup, including the return of the pivotal Dutch forward Malen, who played approximately 30 minutes over the weekend

Top scorer of Borussia Dortmund with 13 goals to his name – Donyell Malen

“We have to be patient, calm and focused. We have to be efficient. The atmosphere in Dortmund is unique. The fans and the style of play sparked an energy that allowed us to turn the game around. The fans offer us a huge chance to push ourselves beyond our limits,” emphasises the need for patience, calmness, and focus Julian Brandt, player of Borussia Dortmund.

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Atletico Madrid News & Current Form: 

This season, Los Colchoneros remained undefeated (4 wins and 2 draws) in the UEFA Champions League group stage, surpassing SS Lazio, Feyenoord Rotterdam, and Celtic FC with a goal difference of 17:6.

Despite such success, Diego Simeone’s team was not considered the favourite in the clash against FC Inter Milan in the Round of 16. The Nerazzurri proved stronger in Milan (1:0) and even took the lead in Madrid. However, two minutes later, Antoine Griezmann levelled the score, and three minutes before the end of regular time, Memphis Depay scored the second goal, forcing the game into overtime. It eventually went to a penalty shootout, where luck favoured the Spanish club (3:2).

On the domestic front, Atletico have long been out of the title race and currently occupy 4th place in the La Liga standings, the gap to the team immediately behind them, Athletic Bilbao, is 4 points. This situation allows them to focus their efforts on the decisive battles of the continental competition. The recent two-week break in March helped the team of Diego Simeone emerge from a crisis and prepare thoroughly for the key matches of the concluding season, following their defeat to FC Barcelona (3:0).

Samuel Lino of Atletico de Madrid will miss the return game due to having too many yellow cards

Following this, there were two consecutive victories in the national championship over Villarreal CF (2:1) and Girona FC (3:1). In the latter encounter, Atletico Madrid conceded an early goal in the 4th minute. However, they promptly took control of the match and scored three goals, this further underscores the excellent current form of the Madrid side.

The team’s leading goal scorer is Griezmann (21 goals and 8 assists in all competitions), who also leads in the goal + assist category. In second place is Alvaro Morata (20 goals and 4 assists). It’s worth noting that Atletico’s entire team performs well in the final stages, with six players having amassed 11 or more points.

Currently, the team has scored 91 goals in all competitions. This season is shaping up to be the most prolific under the guidance of the Argentine coach (the 2017/18 season saw 96 goals). On average, the Spaniards score almost 2 goals per game (1.98), marking the highest average during Simeone’s tenure at the club.

In the upcoming match, Atletico Madrid will be lacking in strength, considering that their lineup for the Dortmund match will not be optimal. Due to the amount of accumulated yellow cards, Samuel Lino will not be available at Signal Iduna Park – he was one of the scorers for Atletico in the first match against BVB. Memphis Depay is injured, and experienced Niklas Süle also sustained an injury in the recent match against Girona, with his availability for Wednesday evening still uncertain.

It’s worth mentioning that in the 21st century, the two teams have met three times, including the match a week ago. In the UCL 2018/19 group stage, the opponents exchanged home victories (4:0 at Signal Iduna Park and 2:0 at the Metropolitano). They ended up with equal points and progressed to the knockout stage – Dortmund topped the group, but both teams were eliminated in the Round of 16.

Borussia Dortmund form guide: W-W-W-L-L-W

Atletico Madrid form guide: L-W-L-W-W-W

Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid Head-To-Head Record:

• October 18, 2018: Borussia Dortmund 4 – 0 Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League);
• November 6, 2018: Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League);
• April 10, 2024: Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League).

Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid Predicted XI:

Borussia Dortmund’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can, Brandt; Sancho, Fullkrug, Malen.

Atletico Madrid’s possible starting lineup (3-5-2): Oblak; Witsel, Gimenez, Azpilicueta; Molina, Llorente, Koke, De Paul, Lino; Griezmann, Morata.

Statistical preview of the match Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid:

• Borussia’s First XI average age is 27.6 years, Atletico’s First XI average age is 31.2 years.
• The total value of Dortmund’s squad is 463 mln euros, while the total of the Spanish side comes up to 417 mln euros.
• Slavko Vincic has been appointed as the centre referee. The referee has already served 11 games this season, showing an average of 4 yellow cards and also whistles 25 fouls per game. 
• In the Champions League matches Borussia serve an average of 5.67 corners, while Atletico have a number of 5.11. 
• Borussia Dortmund, taking into account all tournaments, receive an average of only 1.43 yellow cards, while in the Champions League they receive 1.67. 
• Taking into account all tournaments, Atletico scored an average of 1.88 goals, while Borussia – 2.1. At the same time, both teams concede more than 1 goal each game on average – 1.1 and 1.14 respectively. 
• Borussia’s average xG (expected goals) including all matches of the season is 1.94, while Atletico’s is 1.7. 
• Borussia Dortmund commit an average of 9.76 fouls per game, while Atletico committed 11.43. By the way, the first meeting in Madrid contained only 17 fouls.
• Dortmund’s players get caught offside an average of just 1.49 times per match, while Atletico are offside an average of just 0.92 times. 
• Borussia are unbeaten in 9 of their last 9 home matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 4 draws).
• Atletico have won only one of their last 8 away games in the Champions League (2 draws and 5 defeats).
• Atletico have conceded in 8 consecutive Champions League matches on foreign soil.
• Borussia haven’t conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches in the Champions League.

What has been said before the match:

Gaffer of BVB Edin Terzic expresses confidence in his team’s readiness to rectify errors and improve their performance from the start:

“Last week Atletico Madrid forced us to make mistakes, but tomorrow we have everything in our hands to advance to the next round. We know that our opponents are very experienced. Tomorrow we want to do better from the start.”

“When you play against Atletico, individual mistakes are immediately punished. We know what can’t happen to us tomorrow, but the reaction to it is much more important. We are ready to correct our mistakes. It will be important that we not only have two good strikers, but that we are all ready to give our best for 90 or 120 minutes.”

Diego Simeone, coach of Atletico Madrid, anticipates a tough match against Borussia Dortmund, recognizing their strength at home and the threat posed by their skilled players:

“Borussia Dortmund is a very strong team at home, they will surely start with a high tempo and we have to keep up the level we’ve been playing at in our last few games. I’m sure they will come out strong, they have a lot of skilful people on the wings, people in the middle who come in very well from the second line too. They work very well on set pieces and we will look to take the game where we think we can hurt them.”

“All of their players worry me. They are very good, with enormous speed, the young guy number 47 Antonios Papadopoulos, I don’t want to say his name wrong, but he came the other day and he was a real menace.”

“I can’t imagine any other style of their football because they showed it last season when they even had a chance to win the German league, and then Bayern (Munich) won it, but obviously they are a very strong team.”

“We’ve grown as a consequence of the important results we’ve been able to get in LaLiga. That has made us grow enormously in the world of football and tomorrow we won’t be thinking so much. I feel good about the players, it’s going to be a good game and tomorrow will be a good Champions League night.”

Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid Prediction:

Signal Iduna Park, famous for its energy and loudness, is preparing to provide a “warm welcome” to the Spaniards. The visitors have a rather shaky lead. The team from Dortmund need to get back in the game and from the first minute, they will rush to storm the defensive constructs of Atletico Madrid, who will be just waiting for the moment to run on the counterattack and put the game to bed. In the first match, the opponents were quite willing to go forward, creating a total xG of 3.21, each having quite a handful of chances and shots throughout the game. 

The Germans have four players at once who are regularly scoring and able to decide an episode. Atletico have as many as six such performers, the Spaniards have lost Memphis Depay, but they still have plenty of attacking potential, especially in the form of the multi-talented and skilful team leader Antoine Griezmann. In the course of the season, such a set of players helps both teams to show quite effective attacking football, but the defence of these teams can hardly be called reliable. 6 of the last 10 Black and Yellows games in all competitions have seen an exchange of goals, while 5 of the last 10 matches in this stretch have seen at least 3 goals scored. At home, Edin Terzic’s side have played 6 matches in 2024, in which they have only twice managed to secure a clean sheet. The Red and Whites, on the other hand, have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 10 matches, exchanging goals in 6 games in this stretch, while 8 of those outings have registered at least 3 goals scored.

However, despite shifting style to a more attacking and open model, Diego Simeone and his team still retain the ability to resort to maximum pragmatism and restraint when the situation calls for it. Over the years, the Argentinian has fine-tuned the second-fiddle routine to a level that the Prussians are unlikely to beat, this may be the trump card for the Spaniards. At the same time, the experience of playing in the UCL knockout stages is definitely on the side of the Mattress Makers, the tournament background is an important factor that can decisively influence the neutralisation of the Bumblebees’ efforts. 

We expect that BVB will certainly impose the fight on the Colchoneros, the Germans will again have more possession and will create more chances in the opposite third, but the Madrid team will find their opportunity to punish the opponent at least 1 time to get closer to the semi-finals, thus the chances of the teams are still about equal, and the winner may be decided only in extra time. 

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Atletico Madrid will not lose in the regular time; both teams will score; and the match total will be over 2.5 – Yes.

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