Ukraine vs Italy. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

Ukraine will host Italy in the UEFA EURO 2024 10th qualification round of Group C match at the Bay Arena located in Leverkusen, Germany. The fixture will take place on Tuesday, November 21, beginning at 01:15 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Ukraine News & Current Form: 

With each game day of the last two rounds passing, the number of participants in Euro 2024 is growing. The number of truly decisive matches is decreasing, but there is still intrigue in several groups. 

One of them is Group C, where the national team of England secured a ticket to Germany ahead of schedule as expected, while the destiny of second place is far from certain. All the popcorn is saved for the fight between the teams of Ukraine and Italy, now they have to decide who will go further.

The Yellow and Blues and the Azzurri approached the match of the final round with almost identical indicators. The Italians only have a better goal difference, and in the face-to-face confrontation they defeated the Ukrainians at home. It is already clear that even in the case of a draw it is the Italians who will go further. Arsenal FC player Oleksandr Zinchenko said that the forthcoming match will be the game of a lifetime for Ukraine.

In seven matches of qualification the hosts have defeated only obvious outsiders Malta (1:0 and 3:1) and Northern Macedonia (3:2 and 2:0). In the first match against Macedonia in the first half the Blue and Yellows were trailing 0:2, but in the second half Rebrov’s charges managed to score three unanswered goals against the opponents.

Viktor Tsygankov – top scorer of the Ukrainian team

Ukraine also drew with England (1:1) and became the only team to take points away from the Foggy Albion collective, but then it was not possible to oppose the group leader (0:2). 

The upcoming rivals have already met earlier in qualifying and then at San Siro Ukraine lost to the Azzurri with the score of 2:1. Davide Frattesi scored a double in the net of Georgiy Bushchan, while captain Andriy Yarmolenko scored a goal for Serhiy Rebrov’s team. 

Before the upcoming match, the Ukrainians have a slight advantage in the amount of rest, they have not yet held matches in November, purposefully preparing for the main game of the selection. The Italians had to be distracted by North Macedonia, with whom the games are traditionally difficult. They beat their opponents, lifted their spirits, but also physically weakened a bit. After all, there are only two days between matches to recover and travel.

Head coach Serhiy Rebrov called all the strongest players of the team for the decisive match. The match against Lechia Gdansk (0:2), according to the gaffer, was absolutely unnecessary for the national team, but UEFA insisted on it, saying that the team had to play a friendly match.

The opponent was far from the most sophisticated, and the match was held in complete secrecy, with closed doors without fans and journalists. It was more like a training session, where all the selected players were given an opportunity to show themselves on the field.

It is also worth noting that there is individual progress in the game of many players of the Blue-Yellows. Artem Dovbyk and Viktor Tsygankov, who play for Girona FC, have especially improved. In 11 games in the La Liga, the first recorded seven goals and four assists, while the second scored two goals and gave the same number of passes. 

Italy News & Current Form: 

On the one hand, the Italian team is going through a very difficult period. In the course of the qualification tournament there was a change of coach. Roberto Mancini was tempted by the 150 million euros for three years, which he will receive coaching the Saudi Arabian national team. 

On top of that, moral fatigue must have set in. The best version of his national team remained in the triumphant year of 2021, when they managed to win Euro 2020, since then there have been only failures.

As it happens, the reigning European champion has missed two consecutive world championships. The Italians flew past the FIFA World Cup in 2018 and 2022. Now, Spalletti’s team will qualify for a major tournament and go to defend their title.

On the other hand, Italy’s selection of players right now is very good. There are no world-class stars here, but not so often in its history Squadra Azzurra could boast of them. The emphasis was on team play, and there is nothing wrong with that. 

New ideas were needed, and they should be brought by Luciano Spalletti, the Serie A triumphant with SSC Napoli. So far, after a few matches played, we can’t say that we see his team in full, but the attacking style of play, which was retained from the previous coach, is striking. 

With 3 goals scored Davide Frattesi is the most scoring player in the Azzurri

Special attention should be paid to the mentor’s work on the players’ mentality. They gained confidence in their own strengths and began to keep a high tempo for almost the entire 90 minutes.

The upcoming match will be the fifth for the coach and only in England his team lost, although it was quite an equal game (1:3). All other matches were won with an unquestionable advantage. Last Friday, the Italians defeated North Macedonia (5:2) to avenge previous offenses: the Red Lions sensationally beat Italy in the semifinals of the qualifying tournament for the World Cup in Qatar.

Spalletti said that his national team has a fear for the matches against Ukraine and Macedonians. At first the game with the Lions was going great for the Italians, by half-time they were leading 3:0.

However, right after the break the Blues conceded after a corner kick. In the 74th minute, North Macedonia reduced the deficit to one goal thanks to a lucky ricochet. But at that moment the work of the new coach was at its best, the Italian national team showed character and confidently brought the game to victory.

Ukraine form guide: W-W-D-L-W-W

Italy form guide: W-D-W-W-L-W

Ukraine vs Italy Head-To-Head Record:

• March 29, 2011: Ukraine 0 – 2 Italy (International Friendly);
• October 10, 2018: Italy 1 – 1 Ukraine (International Friendly);
• September 12, 2023: Italy 2 – 1 Ukraine (UEFA EURO).

Ukraine vs Italy Predicted XI:

Ukraine’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Karavaev, Zabarnyi, Matvienko, Mykolenko; Sydorchuk, Zinchenko; Konoplya, Sudakov, Mudryk; Dovbyk.

Italy’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Darmian, Gatti, Acerbi, Dimarco; Barella, Jorginho, Bonaventura; Berardi, Raspadori, Chiesa.

Statistical preview of the match Ukraine vs Italy:

• In the FIFA ranking of the world’s national teams the Ukrainian team occupies 22nd position, while the collective from Italy is on the 9th.
• Ukraine’s First XI average age is 25.4 years, Italy’s First XI average age is 27.7 years.
• Jesus Gil Manzano has been appointed as the center referee. The referee has already served thirteen games this season, showing an average of 4.31 Yellow Cards and also whistles 26.31 fouls per game. 
• The Ukrainian national team was a quarterfinalist at the World Cup in 2006 and the European Championship in 2020
• Seven different players scored goals in qualification, Viktor Tsygankov scored 2 goals, he is the top scorer. Mykhaylo Mudryk is the best assistant, he has 2 assists.
• The Italian national team is a four-time world champion and a two-time European champion, and a reigning one as well.
• In the qualifying tournament Italians distinguished themselves 16 times, the best scorer is FC Inter Milan midfielder Davide Frattesi, he scored 3 goals. The best assistant is another Inter midfielder Nicolo Barella, who has 4 assists.
• This year Ukraine on average per game perform 3.63 passes from the corner of the pitch, while Italy have 5.56. 
• Both national teams receive an average of 2 yellow cards per match this year. 
• In the last 6 matches in this tournament, the Ukrainians lost only 1 time (4 wins and 1 draw).
• At least two goals were scored in 10 of Ukraine’s 11 previous Euro qualifying games.
• At least 3 goals have been scored in 8 of Italy’s last 10 games in this tournament.
• Italy have not lost in 5 of their last 7 matches
• In the last 5 games Italy are conceding an average of 1.40 goals per game and scoring an average of 2.60 goals per game
• In the last 5 games Ukraine are conceding an average of 0.80 goals per game and scoring an average of 1.60 goals per game.

What has been said before the match:

Serhiy Rebrov expects full support from the stadium and an intense decisive game with the Italians:

“I have been working with the Ukrainian national team not so long ago. I really like the atmosphere in the team, despite the club affairs. This is a completely different task, a completely different responsibility to our country and people.”

“I’m sure the players are ready, it will be a different game. I am sure there will be a lot of support in Germany at the stadium tomorrow. Tomorrow we need only victory. Taking this into account, we will build our game.”

“I think we have a good chance. This game will be different from the match at San Siro because this time the whole stadium will support us. I remember how we played a friendly match in Bremen, what was the support.”

“I’m sure the atmosphere will be similar tomorrow. Of course, this affects the psychology and motivation of the players. I believe we have a good chance. I always tell football players that you shouldn’t be afraid of losing, you should be afraid of not doing enough to win. So we have to show our strength and show our best game.”

“Italy have very useful performers who can play defense and attack, it is a very intense team. They played two days ago, but Italy always has multiple lineups. We have to be ready for an intense game. We have already made a decision, and tomorrow we will provide football players with information on how we will act. I don’t think Italy will come out tomorrow and draw. This is not the right team, wrong coach.”

Luciano Spaletti discussed the last clash with Macedonia, which ended with a score of 3-2:

“We played well for the whole 90 minutes against Macedonia. It can happen that when the game looks dead and buried you drop off a little and fight less for the ball. The second goal could have messed us up psychologically, but our reaction was excellent and should be highlighted. We have the quality to create chances in front of goal, and this evening we made a notable step forward in that respect.”

“The best part of this match regards the second half performance, which I prefered more than the first. We saw the best of ourselves after they had scored the second goal.”

“These are the types of games that reveal the character of a team; after they pegged us back to 3:2 I expected we might have to dig in and suffer a little, but instead we pushed them back, gaining meters up the pitch and turned the situation around. Regardless of the goals, which are always nice, we made lots of other good chances.”

 “This win doesn’t leave us relaxed. We’re in a strong position, but we must face every game with the right spirit. If you give just an inch then you can concede two goals, like we saw this evening. We’ll need to have the right determination, because everything is still at stake and things can change in an instant.”

Ukraine vs Italy Prediction:

Zinchenko and Co. are set to produce the ‘match of a lifetime’ and are likely to be capable of scoring, yet they are still doubtful to overpower the rejuvenated Euro 2020 champions. Men of Spalletti will definitely have their say too. The statistics speak in favor of this scenario: the Ukrainians have not left the pitch without a goal in the last two fixtures, and they have exchanged shots with their opponents in four out of seven meetings during qualification. The Scuadra Azzurra, in turn, have secured only two cleansheet matches in this cycle: against Malta (2:0 and 4:0). In the other five games both teams have scored.

Motivation, good form and the fitness of the team leaders, who have a lot of practice in the top-5 leagues in Europe, all speak in favor of the Rebrov’s team. If they are able to deliver their best game of the year, the Ukrainian national team will triumph. Italians can boast the advantage in the class of players, while the qualifying cycle stats and the history of head-to-head meetings are also indicative of their favor. At the same time, there are certain personnel problems that will slightly reduce the potential of the team.

Could the Yellow and Blue squeeze 100% of their potential to deliver exceptional performance? Much says unlikely, and any mistake could result in a conceded goal, given how easily and intermittently the Blues are scoring goals (2.28 per game on average). Ukrainians could get a draw due to their solid defense, although a win is faintly believable. And splitting points will not upset Luciano Spaletti, as in such circumstances they will still go further on the basis of goal difference. At some point, they may even drop back in defense and play second choice to secure 1 point. 

Herewith, even if Serhiy Rebrov’s boys do finish in third place in the group, they will still have the hope to make it to the EURO 2024. As per the latest update, the Ukraine national football team will have a chance to qualify for the tournament through the Nations League play-off round.

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Italy will not lose and the match total will be over 1,5 – Yes.