Napoli vs Inter Milan. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

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Will Milan be able to lift the trophy for the 3rd year in a row after a final match of Super Cup against Napoli?

SSC Napoli will host Inter Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana final match at the Al-Awwal Park Stadium in Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia. The fixture will take place on Tuesday, January 23, beginning at 00:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Napoli News & Current Form: 

The Italian Super Cup final will take place in Saudi Arabia and the participants have already been decided. On one side will be Napoli, who have already mentally said goodbye to the hope of defending the championship, but are not going to put a dash in the column of trophies won this season. 

On the other side is Inter, for whom winning the Super Cup is also an important goal, but cannot be more important than winning the Scudetto. And there is a lot of money at stake: ACF Fiorentina and SS Lazio, who lost in the semi-finals, are already guaranteed 1.5 million euros each. The Super Cup finalist will get 5 million euros, and the winner will get another 8 million euros along with the trophy. And that is more than for the entire Coppa Italia.

It is worth noting that since this season the Italian Super Cup is held in the format of the Final Four, so the reigning Serie A champion and the Cup winner might not have met. In the semi-final game, the Neapolitans faced Fiorentina (3:0), but the score does not reflect the real picture of the game at all. The Violas attacked more often and more dangerously, took the initiative for almost the entire match, had twice as many shots, and also won the ball possession advantage.

Napoli opened the scoring in the 22nd minute through Giovanni Simeone. The key moment came at the end of the first half, when Fiorentina managed to equalize on 28 minutes, but the goal was canceled due to offside. Then, in the 44th minute, Jonathan Ikoné failed to convert an 11-meter shot. 

As a result, Napoli kept a minimal advantage until the end of the game, when substitute Alessio Zerbin scored a double within three minutes. But the club’s leading players Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Matteo Politano – once again left the field without any results. As a result, the match ended with the score 3:0 and perhaps it was the best match of the team after the change of head coach. 

Alessio Zerbin scored a double in the Super Cup semi final match against Fiorentina

It should be noted that for the team from Naples the upcoming Super Cup final will be the 5th in the history of the country, and the Neapolitans have won this trophy twice (1990 and 2014).

And also the result in the last game for the Neapolitans became the first major victory since the end of September – then they destroyed US Lecce (4:0). And the team of Walter Mazzarri also won two in a row for the first time in a month – on the eve of the Super Cup they defeated US Salernitana in the second half penalty time (2:1). This was preceded by a four-match winless streak – three defeats and a draw with a total score of 0:9.

Before that, the Blues lost to Empoli FC (0:1), to Inter (0:3), Juventus FC (0:1), AS Roma (0:2) and Torino FC (0:3). Napoli also defeated Frosinone Calcio (0:4) in the 1/8 finals of the Italian Cup. It is reported that in the near future he may again experience a change of coach. According to media reports, one of the main contenders for the position is the recently resigned Roma Jose Mourinho.

As for the prospects in the national championship, the season for the club from Naples, which last year celebrated the long-awaited championship, not seen in the city since the time of Diego Maradona, has actually already failed. At the moment, the Neapolitan team has 31 points in sixteen matches and sits only ninth in the standings.

Napoli have no chance to defend the title, and even getting into the UEFA Champions League (which, by the way, from next season will be held in a new format) would be a huge success.  The Azzurri continue to struggle in the current UCL draw, where they finished second in the group with Real Madrid CF, SC Braga and FC Union Berlin with 10 points.

Unfortunately, the positivity of the last week was interrupted by a sensational news: Napoli are accused of providing false reporting on the transfer of Victor Osimhen from Lille OSC in 2020. The proceedings relate to an alleged fictitious capital gain. The club now face a points deduction and a fine, while president Aurelio De Laurentiis faces dismissal.

Inter Milan News & Current Form: 

Inter, on the other hand, are having a great season and are clearly serious about regaining the title. Juventus are now the only rivals of the Nerazzurri, trailing by just two points, although Milan could still pull up – but that would require a series of misfires by the two best clubs of the season.

So far, the wards of Simone Inzaghi have lost points in only 4 rounds out of 20, with only one defeat. In the last games of the championship Inter defeated AC Monza (5:1) and defeated Hellas Verona FC (2:1), and before that drew away with Genoa CFC (1:1). Before that, the wards of the Black and Whites won four matches in a row.

The club also qualified for the Champions League play-offs, albeit from second place. Their opponents were Real Sociedad, SL Benfica and FC Red Bull Salzburg. But the team has already sensationally dropped out of the Italian Cup, losing to Bologna FC (1:2). 

Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan opened the scoring in the Super Cup semi final match

In the semi-final match of the Super Cup, the Milan club, like the upcoming opponent, also won with the score – 3:0. But unlike Napoli, they defeated their opponents easily, totally dominating the whole game. Simone Inzaghi’s men literally took apart a tough Lazio side, leaving the Romans no chance of reaching the final.

For example, Inter outscored Lazio 23 to 5 in shots, and 7 to 0 in shots on target. Already in the 17th minute Marcus Thuram scored, at the beginning of the second half Milan’s advantage was doubled by Hakan Çalhanoglu, who converted a penalty, and in the 87th minute Davide Frattesi made the final score 3:0. The head coach of the Nerazzurri was satisfied with the quality of play of his charges, but he was disappointed with the large number of missed chances.

We should also mention that Inter are the current holders of the Italian Super Cup, and in the decisive battle for this trophy will fight for the 12th time. There are actually only two days of rest between the second semi-final and the final, and the head coach sincerely hopes that the team will have time to recover before the game with a difficult opponent.

Napoli form guide: L-L-D-L-W-W

Inter Milan form guide: L-W-D-W-W-W

Napoli vs Inter Milan Head-To-Head Record:

NapoliDrawInter Milan
  • January 4, 2023: Inter Milan 1 : 0 Napoli (Serie A);
  • May 21, 2023: Napoli 3 : 1 Inter Milan (Serie A);
  • December 3, 2023: Napoli 0 : 3 Inter Milan (Serie A).

Napoli vs Inter Milan Predicted XI:

Napoli’s possible starting lineup (3-4-3): Gollini; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Jesus; Mazzocchi, Cajuste, Lobotka, Rui; Politano, Simeone, Kvaratskhelia.

Inter Milan’s possible starting lineup (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez.

Statistical preview of the match Napoli vs Inter Milan:

  • Napoli’s First XI average age is 29.0 years, Inter’s First XI average age is 29.3 years.
  • The total value of Napoli’s squad is 514 mln euros, while the total of Inter is 588 mln euros.
  • Antonio Rapuano has been appointed as the center referee. The referee has already served eight games this season, showing an average of 4 Yellow Cards and also whistles 25 fouls per game. 
  • Napoli have played 5 meetings in the Italian Super Cup and did not concede in regulation time in 4 of them (2 wins, 2 draws). 
  • The Blues hit the opponents’ goal in 4 out of 5 matches of this tournament.
  • At least one team failed to score in 7 of the 9 previous matches of the Neapolitans in Serie A, Italian Cup and Italian Super Cup.
  • Inter did not concede in regulation time in 7 of the 10 previous matches of the Italian Super Cup (3 wins, 4 draws), and in the last 2 won with an identical score of 3:0.
  • Inter’s goal-scoring streak in this tournament totals 7 matches.
  • At least 3 goals were scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings of Milan in the national Super Cup.

What has been said before the match:

Gaffer of Napoli Walter Mazzarri about his mentality towards the Super Cup trophy and playing Inter on equal terms.

“Napoli already has international prestige and since it has been led by President De Laurentiis it has been a tangible reality at world level for years. This trophy would be important for this group, the club has already gained great global recognition after the Scudetto.”

“It is clear that in my 23-year career this is the second time I have played a Super Cup final and I hope to win it this time. But what is important is that these guys can win an important trophy for their season.”

“As far as I am concerned, I am already fully satisfied with my coaching history and, coming from nowhere, to have managed to play two Super Cup finals is already a source of personal pride.”

“In the semi-final we saw an overflowing Inter side. We face an opponent at their most brilliant moment so far this season and if we were to get a positive result it would also be an important achievement from a moral point of view for us.”

“For sure we’ll play on equal terms with Inter and then we’ll see what happens. Napoli are champions of Italy and this means something. the Scudetto is on their chest until they win others. Inter are a great team, but we want to have our say and be protagonists in this final.”

Simeone Inzaghi is prepared to lift the trophy for the 3rd year in a row:

“Many times, finals are decided by episodes: we’ll need to be very attentive. We’ve only got two and half days to prepare for it, the team needs to keep working as they have done in the last few games. We’re coming up against the champions of Italy, who won 3:0 in the semi-final.”

“Winning the Super Cup three times in a row has only happened once in the history of Italian football. We won the derby here last year, against Juventus two years ago, and now we want to beat Napoli”.

“Napoli are having a tough time in the league but they have lots of quality inside a deep squad. We’ll have to put in a big performance. They have changed formation, before they wanted to dominate possession of the ball but now less so. 

“If Mazzarri sticks with the way he went in the semi-final we’ll be ready for it: regardless of formations and tactics, what matters most is motivation.”

Napoli vs Inter Milan Prediction:

Simone Inzaghi is once again determined to prove that cup matches are his forte. Having reached the UEFA Champions League final with Inter the year before, and won both the Italian Cup and the Super Cup, he has now claimed a total of seven cup silverwares in his coaching career – a magnificent tally for a man who has been coaching for just over seven years. His vis-a-vis Walter Mazzarri has a much more modest record – he has lifted the trophy only once in his 23-year managerial journey. 

Both teams, at first glance, seemingly comfortably overcame the semi-final stage of the Supercoppa Italiana. But Napoli’s triumph was far different from Inter’s persuasive victory. 

As early as in the first half, Fiorentina could have scored a goal and even taken the lead, but firstly an offside call was made and then Ikone failed to convert a penalty. Had it been 2:1 in favor of the Violets in the first half, the match would have gone completely differently. But football, as we know, does not bear the subjunctive clause, the scoreline is a fact that’s hard to argue with. Nevertheless, Fiorentina surpassed Madzarri’s team in terms of possession, shots on goal, corner kicks and other indicators. The Neapolitans have slipped to the deciding match with difficulties, and now they face a clash that will shed true light.

Inter, by contrast, completely dominated over Lazio: the Eagles didn’t even land a single shot on goal, let alone other indicators (e.g. passes: 628 vs 399). It was an absolute wipeout that may well be repeated in the final. The Nerazzurri are on a frenetic run and have lost only once in their last 21 matches in all tournaments, having shared the points 5 times. And in the last face-to-face meeting, which took place in December last year, the Black and Blues defeated Khvicha and Co in Naples with a score of 3:0. And the balance of problems in the squads is completely on the side of the Milan club, as Napoli are still playing without a number of systemically important players. At the same time, Simeone Inzaghi possesses both the availability of key performers and the overall quality and depth of the squad, which allows him to successfully fight on several fronts at once. 

The Milanese are unconditional favorites for the final confrontation, they will be expected to win in regular time, and confidently. We expect them to score at least 2 goals, which is realistic given their incredible average of 2.45 goals per 90 minutes over the course of the 20 Serie A matches played. And, if we look at the Italian Super Cup performances over the last three years, the Black and Blues have played three games in which they netted 8 goals (an average of 2.67 converted shots per game), although they have faced Juventus, AC Milan and Lazio – the Italian football mastodons. Based on this, we expect the trend to continue in this final.

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Inter will win with an individual total over 1.5 – Yes.

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