Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

Borussia Dortmund will host PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 match at the Signal Iduna Park Stadium. The fixture will take place on Thursday, March 14, beginning at 01:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Borussia Dortmund News & Current Form: 

In the fall, Borussia sensationally took first place in their quartet of death, which included Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Newcastle United FC, although after the draw many predicted the Black and Yellows would bid farewell to the European Cup. It was indeed an impressive result for BVB, especially considering the 2:0 defeat in the first leg at Parc des Princes. 

But three wins and two draws, combined with the misfires of their rivals, elevated the German club to the top spot. Borussia have conceded only twice in those five games and are in the top 3 most reliable teams in the group stage along with Arsenal FC and Real Sociedad, who have gotten four and two goals respectively. The scoring was poor – seven goals, the lowest figure for the participants of the 1/8 finals along with SS Lazio and Sociedad.

It is important to note that Edin Terzic’s men have reached the quarterfinals of the Champions League only once in the last six seasons, while the Black and Yellows have been successful in their last five playoff encounters, when they avoided defeat in the first leg. In addition, the hosts have not fared too well on their home pitch over the course of the current season as they have won just four of their last nine matches at Signal Iduna Park in all competitions. 

In the first match of the ⅛ finals, the German side secured a 1:1 draw with PSV in the Netherlands, although they deserved more and complained a lot about the refereeing. BVB have prepared a good ground for the return leg, where they will have an additional advantage due to the support of the home stands.

PSV looked pretty good in the first match. They attacked vigorously and took a lot of shots, but most of them were saved. The Bumblebees’ goalkeeper could have kept the gates empty if not for a controversial penalty. Mats Hummels made a rough tackle in his own penalty area, but first he touched the ball and then it flew into his opponent’s legs.

Between the start and return playoff game of the main continental championship, the hosts lost at home to TSG Hoffenheim (2:3), this failure interrupted a ten-match series without defeat in all tournaments, which began back in December 2023. 

They then defeated FC Union Berlin and SV Werder Bremen (0:2 and 1:2).In the last game, both goals were scored in the first half: Donyell Malen, who spent three seasons in Eindhoven then moved to Dortmund, scored on 21 minutes and Jadon Sancho scored on 38 minutes.

The player took part in eight of these nine meetings, scoring one goal and giving an assist. The statistics are not the best, but the Englishman’s return to Dortmund has increased the competition for a place at the heart of the lineup and allowed Terzic to use new options in attack.

It’s also worth noting that it took Sancho some time to adapt. There was an incident when he was not allowed to shoot a penalty earned by the team’s top scorer Niclas Füllkrug. Gradually, the Englishman is regaining the title of one of the leaders of BVB. 

In the offset time Borussia remained in the minority, Marcel Sabitzer received a direct red card. In the second half Werder regained one goal: Justin Njinmah scored on 70 minutes.

Jadon Sancho has finally started scoring after his return to Borussia Dortmund

As a result, nine rounds before the end of the season Borussia are in 4th place in the Bundesliga standings and are no longer in contention for the title, up to third place – six points. In addition, according to social media, the team’s offensive play does not suit the club’s bosses, and the coach’s support for general manager Hans-Joachim Watzke is gradually weakening. If the results worsen, the management may take extreme measures against Edin Terzic.

Sebastien Haller, the CAF African Cup of Nations winner for Cote d’Ivoire, is still recovering from an injury in the infirmary, young midfielder Felix Nmecha and Julien Duranville will also not play on Thursday. From other personnel losses: central defender Nico Schlotterbeck is suspended. But the talented Karim Adeyemi and the main goalkeeper Gregor Kobel have returned to the general group – both will take the field from the first minute. 

Dutchman Malen was excellent on the right wing in the first meeting, and last Saturday he scored his 10th goal in the Bundesliga. He is likely to start alongside playmaker Marco Reus (4 goals, 3 assists), winger Sancho (on loan from Manchester United FC for the second half of the season) and top scorer Fullkrug (11 goals, 8 assists in the Bundesliga). 

PSV Eindhoven News & Current Form: 

PSV are doing very well this season, both in the league and in the Champions League. Before a 1:1 draw in the first match of the Champions League final, the Dutch managed to get out of a rather difficult group, which also included London Arsenal, RC Lens and UEFA Europa League winner Sevilla FC, despite a crushing defeat at the Emirates in the beginning (0:4). But in the next five rounds, the boys of Peter Bosz did not concede once. Three draws made Eindhoven the most peaceful team along with FC Inter Milan and Real Sociedad. 

The club from the Netherlands scored even more than Borussia – eight times. But conceded quite a lot – 10 goals, the worst result for all who made it to the 1/8. Especially successful in this UCL the Red and Whites played at home – three wins and two draws at Philips Stadium, taking into account the qualification. 

As for the national championship, PSV are leading in it with a gap of 10 points from second-placed Feyenoord Rotterdam. With a ratio of 80 goals scored to 13 goals conceded, the visitors have the best attack and best defense in the Eredivisie and are on course for a 25th Dutch title. 

In recent weeks, PSV defeated modest PEC Zwolle (1:7), drew at home with Rotterdam grand (2:2) and won against Go Ahead Eagles FC (0:1), everything was decided by a goal from Sergiño Dest in the 10th minute of the match. The team finished the match in the minority: Armando Obispo received a yellow card on 22 minutes, then the defender was suspended for a second warning on 89 minutes of the game.

Top scorer of the whole Eredivisie league with 22 goals scored – Luuk de Jong

It is important to note that the Striped Ones have failed to gain the upper hand in any of their 16 previous visits to Germany in all competitions, losing on 13 occasions. The Danes will have to do without the services of star striker Noa Lang (4 goals in the Eredivisie), who has been plagued by injuries this season. 

And if we talk about the attacking stars, we can’t fail to mention ex-Sevilla and FC Barcelona striker Luuk de Jong (22 goals, 11 assists in the league). The Dutchman, who scored in the first match against Borussia, is in fine form, and Johan Bakayoko (6 goals, 8 assists in the league) and Hirving Lozano (5 goals, 3 assists) can keep him company.

Borussia Dortmund form guide: W-D-D-L-W-W

PSV Eindhoven form guide: W-W-D-W-D-W

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven Head-To-Head Record:

• February 20, 2024: PSV Eindhoven 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund (UEFA Champions League).

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven Predicted XI:

Borussia Dortmund’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Malen, Brandt, Adeyemi; Fullkrug.

PSV Eindhoven’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Benitez; Teze, Obispo, Boscagli, Dest; Schouten, Til, Junior; Bakayoko, De Jong, Lozano.

Statistical preview of the match Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven:

• Borussia’s First XI average age is 28.8 years, PSV’s  First XI average age is 26.0 years.
• The total value of Dortmund’s squad is 464 mln euros, while the total of Eindhoven comes up to 282 mln euros.
• Daniele Orsato has been appointed as the center referee. The referee has already served 26 games this season, showing an average of 5 Yellow Cards and also whistles 23 fouls per game. 
• Six of Borussia’s seven matches in the current Champions League have contained no more than three goals. 
• Borussia have an average xG (expected goals) of 1.82, while PSV have an average xG (expected goals) of 2.49.
• Borussia  make an average of 5.54 shots on goal, while PSV have 8.42.
• Borussia commit 10.09 fouls per game, while PSV average 9.29.
• PSV get caught offside an average of 2.08 times per match, while Dortmund average 1.43.
• Borussia is doing well in 2024 so far: six wins, three draws and only one defeat. 
• In the Champions League, Dortmund serve an average of 5.43 corners, compared to PSV’s 5.36. 
• Borussia get an average of 1.57 yellows in the Champions League, while PSV get 1.45. 

• Borussia have not lost in home matches in the Champions League since November of 2021 – 4 wins and 4 draws.
• PSV have conceded in 8 consecutive away games in the Champions League, and in 5 of them – 2 or more goals.

What has been said before the match:

Gaffer of the Black and Yellows Edin Terzic ahead of the return leg of Champions League:

“It’s important that we make the most of our opportunity tomorrow to qualify for the last eight of the Champions League. We’ll have to rearrange our central defense. Mats Hummels has a good chance of starting tomorrow.”

“We’re going into the game with a good feeling. We’ve earned that thanks to our position in the first leg. It will be a great night with our fans and we’re looking forward to it.”

“PSV are having an exceptionally good season. They have a great team and are full of confidence. We won’t have it easy against them. But they also know it’s not going to be an easy task for them.”

“It’s a great structure, but our fans make it a great stadium. We can rely on their support. If we all stick together, are brave and positive and our fans are loud, it makes it far easier for us to play well and makes life more difficult for our opponents. We want to show everyone that we’re determined to progress to the next round.”

Ex-player of PSV Eindhoven, now forward of Borussia Dortmund, Donyell Malen, about the upcoming opponent:

“PSV are traveling to us, so it’s not going to be easy for them. It’s important for us to start well. It will be an exciting game. They have a very good squad, Luuk is in good form at the moment.” 

Borussia Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction:

The intrigue in this pairing is immense. A win for either team will take them into the next stage, and with another draw the opponents will face extra time. In the first match, the result played into Borussia’s hands, having held off their opponents in the Netherlands, they shifted the decisive battle to their own field, where the chances will be much better.

The Eindhovenians are remarkably good: this season in 36 matches in all tournaments they lost only 1 time, to Arsenal (4:0). In the Eredivisie, PSV are going undefeated, with an average of 3.2 goals scored per match, conceding 0.52. However, it is worth making a correction for the level of the Dutch championship (only 6th strongest in Europe): such unbeaten run is determined by the exceptionally low level of the opposition, whose squads are worth at least 7 times less, the competition is literally four worthy opponents. By comparison, in 11 Champions League matches in 23/24 (including quals), the Light Bulbs have conceded 16 goals (1.45 average per match) with only 1 clean sheet in that stretch. Taking a sample of their away matches in UCL, PSV conceded even more – exactly two goals on average. And in the main stage of the tournament Peter Bosz’s wards have won only two out of seven matches. At the same time, the Netherlanders have not scored more than one goal in 5 out of 6 previous UCL outings on the road.

As for the Bumblebees, they caught their rhythm in 2024: six wins, three draws and only one defeat. And, importantly, unlike the rival in the 1/8, the representative of the Bundesliga shows strong results against a solid level of resistance. At the same time, Borussia had to fight for a place in the playoffs among such teams as PSG, Milan and Newcastle. The Yellow-Blacks lost only to PSG, and it happened at the Parc de Princes. In the return match, BVB have a huge advantage in the form of a crazy support at the legendary Signal Iduna Park – flamboyant performances from the ultras and heated support from the fans have helped Dortmund in the Champions League showdowns on more than one occasion. The last time Borussia lost at home in the UCL was in November 2021. At the same time, Dortmund have kept their gates intact in 6 of their last 8 matches at their arena in this competition. Other stats are also in hand: the team conceded more than one goal only once in the group stage. 

Edin Terzic will definitely take advantage of the opponent’s problems and press the weak points. Especially since Borussia’s attack is in good order: they have scored an average of 1.75 goals in their home games in the 2023/24 season. In the UCL, the Bumblebees are more pragmatic, averaging 1.14 goals per match while conceding 0.57. Six of the seven previous meetings with the German team in this tournament have seen a total of less than 2.5. Marco Reus and company survived in the group of death, and now they will try to do everything to strengthen the position of the coach, who is in danger of dismissal. We expect that Borussia will not lose in regulation time, and the match will not be rich in goals.

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Borussia Dortmund will not lose and the match total will be less than 3.5 – Yes.

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