Bayern Munich vs Lazio. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

FC Bayern Munich will host SS Lazio in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 match at the Allianz Arena. The fixture will take place on Wednesday, March 6, beginning at 01:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Bayern Munich News & Current Form: 

To everyone’s surprise, Bayern lost in the first match of the Champions League ⅛  final in the Italian capital (1:0). In this match, the coaching staff tried to use the most successful lineup of players. The team played with a long-standing triangle Joshua Kimmich – Leon Goretzka – Thomas Muller in the center of the field. But even with such a creative center, the Germans were unable to break through the Romans’ low block, suffering in the positional attack and not hitting a single shot on goal for the match.

Until the 67th minute, the match was played at an even pace, in some places the German team were better, they were more active going forward and were closer to opening the scoring. However, then Dayot Upamecano earned a penalty in his own net and also received a red card.

This failure only confirmed all the problems of the team, which a couple of days before was beaten to a pulp by Bayer 04 Leverkusen (3:0), and then, a week later, suffered another, more sensational defeat by VfL Bochum 1848 (3:2). Such a terrible performance led to head coach Thomas Tuchel announcing his resignation at the end of the season. 

Last weekend, the red and white struggled to take a 2:1 win over RB Leipzig in the league, but last weekend the Munich side were unable to continue their winning streak as they drew 2:2 with SC Freiburg. 

“We played undisciplined in positions, in a way it was hara-kiri. At the beginning of the match we played as if it was the 85th minute and we were losing 0:1. In the first half an hour we acted thoughtlessly and were punished for that,” Tuchel’s speech after the missed win at Freiburg was full of frustration. 

There’s plenty to be disappointed about: Munich lost points in the third of their last four Bundesliga matches and are 10 points behind Bayer, who are in the lead. With 10 games to go, such a gap from the unbeaten gang of Xabi Alonso seems critical for the pursuers.

Given the probable failure in the championship, defeat in the Super Cup and departure from the DFB-Pokal, Munich have one more or less realistic chance for a trophy this season – to win the Champions League. However, the result of the first match against Lazio and the instability of the team in recent weeks hint that no miracle should be expected. 

It turns out that Bayern are close to going unranked for the first time in 13 years. It is mystical that this will happen right after the transfer of Harry Kane, who left a trophyless Tottenham Hotspur FC for guaranteed victories with the German hegemon. 

In 24 meetings in the German championship, the Englishman scored 27 goals and gave five assists. The forward is having a great season, but his efforts are not always enough.

Sloppy play and unsatisfactory results have expectedly led to a disagreement between Thomas Tuchel and his charges, particularly Kimmich. The team has split into two roughly equal camps. This is unlikely to give the team cohesion and spirit before the upcoming game.

Dayot Upamecano was an antihero of the first leg game

In addition, lately Munich have often failed to open up their opponents’ defenses, and at the same time, they allow a lot at their own goal. If it wasn’t for Manuel Neuer, Bayern would have conceded not nine goals in the last four meetings in the Bundesliga, but much more, the goalkeeper made 16 saves during this period.

The team is also not helped by the abundance of injuries: Tarek Buchmann, Bouna Sarr, Kingsley Coman (3 goals, 3 assists in the Bundesliga), left-back Alphonso Davies, winger Serge Gnabry and midfielders Konrad Laimer are recovering in the infirmary. More recently, in addition, the French center back Upamecano, who was suspended for a flagrant foul in the first game, is also suspended.

Harry Kane, who moved from Tottenham last summer to win his first trophy as an adult, is having an incredible season individually (top scorer in the Bundesliga with 27 goals, 4 goals and 3 assists in the Champions League). He will surely be aided in attack by Leroy Sane (8 goals, 11 assists in the Bundesliga), Thomas Muller (1 goal, 7 assists) and Jamal Musiala (6 goals, 3 assists).

Lazio News & Current Form: 

Looking at Lazio’s recent results, one might conclude that the team is no longer in control, but this is far from being the case. The squad allows to fight for the Champions League zone, however, coach Maurizio Sarri claims that the players he asked for were not bought. In response, club president Claudio Lotito parries, saying that almost a hundred million euros were spent on transfers in the off-season. It is reported that the White and Blues bosses are thinking about ending their cooperation with the 65-year-old specialist.

In fact, the sums are a bit misleading, at least on Transfermarkt we are talking about 50 million euros, and the most expensive purchase was the acquisition of striker Taty Castellanos. It seems that they bought him only for four goals scored in one match against Real Madrid CF in La Liga.

But Lazio had a small success, winning the first match 1:0 in front of their fans after a goal by Ciro Immobile from the penalty spot. Sarri’s side will have a tough time at the Allianz Arena, especially as the Romans have not been very encouraging of late. 

After a 1:2 loss to Bologna FC, the Eagles defeated Torino FC (0:2), and then suffered another defeat to ACF Fiorentina (2:1). Last Friday the Blues again upset the fans, this time losing to AC Milan at home, and the match ended with three penalties for the Romans: first there was a silly suspension for Luca Pellegrini, who decided to foul Christian Pulisic. 

Luca decided that the American should not have developed the attack, but rather complied with the fair-play rule. At the same time Romans looked quite decent, played on equal terms, could score, after the first half led by xG, but still could not press the opponent.

Now the capital team is only eighth in the Serie A standings, 4 points behind the top six. It is worth noting that Lazio have reached the Champions League playoffs only twice – and the last attempt in 2021 just ended with a knockout loss to Bayern Munich.  An interesting fact is that in all continental championships, the Eagles have come out victorious in 12 of their last 13 encounters after winning the first leg. 

Of course, disqualifications in Serie A are not transferred to the Champions League, so Sarri will have an almost optimal squad for the trip to Munich. Key midfielder Nicolo Rovella looks set to be out due to an injury, as does important defender Patric. 

Luca Pellegrini got suspended in the game against AC Milan because of a foul

Mattéo Guendouzi, voted best player of the first match, should once again take his place in the support zone, while the center of the attack will be left to Ciro Immobile (6 goals in Serie A). The Italian will be joined by Felipe Anderson (3 goals, 6 assists in Serie A) and playmaker Luis Alberto (4 goals, 4 assists in Serie A) in midfield. 

In addition to the current playoff meeting, Bayern and Lazio crossed paths in the Champions League three years ago, also in the 1/8 finals. At that time, the Munich club confidently went further – 4:1 away and then 2:1 at home. Now such great Bayern are nowhere near the same power, and everything goes to the fact that at least in the first season after moving to Germany, Harry Kane will again remain without trophies.

“It will be a game loaded with responsibility. We will have to have the same determination as in the first leg, adding even something more. We believe in the path we are taking and the growth we are having. Being here for Lazio and representing Italy is a source of great pride. I don’t see a great divergence between our league and the others.”

“Tomorrow’s match is fundamental for our path. I like to compare myself with the best like Kane, I always try to take from them anything that can help me improve, especially mentally,” stated Ciro Immobile, top scorer of SS Lazio.

Bayern Munich form guide: W-L-L-L-W-D

Lazio form guide: W-W-L-W-L-L

Bayern Munich vs Lazio Head-To-Head Record:

• February 23, 2021: Lazio 1 – 4 Bayern Munich (UEFA Champions League);
• March 17, 2021: Bayern Munich 2 – 1 Lazio (UEFA Champions League);
• February 14, 2024: Lazio 1 – 0 Bayern Munich (UEFA Champions League).

Bayern Munich vs Lazio Predicted XI:

Bayern Munich’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, De Ligt, Kim, Davies; Pavlovic, Goretzka; Tel, Muller, Musiala; Kane.

Lazio’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Hysaj; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Alberto; Anderson, Immobile, Zaccagni.

Statistical preview of the match Bayern Munich vs Lazio:

• Bayern’s First XI average age is 26.9 years, Lazio’s First XI average age is 28.9 years.
• The total value of Bayern’s squad is 976 mln euros, while the total of Lazio comes up to 241 mln euros.
• Slavko Vincic has been appointed as the center referee. The referee has already served 10 games this season, showing an average of 4.2 Yellow Cards and also whistles 25 fouls per game. 
• Bayern’s average possession percentage is 60.78%, Lazio’s is 49.37%.
• Bayern’s average xG (expected goals) is 2.54 and Lazio’s is 1.21.
• Thomas Tuchel makes an average of 4.31 substitutions per match, while Maurizio Sarri makes 4.76. 
• Bayern average 7.81 shots on goal, while the Eagles average 3.51.
• Bayern have a 13-match unbeaten streak in the Champions League at the Allianz Arena
• In the 2023/24 season, Bayern received an average of 1.56 yellow cards, in the Champions League the number is even lower –  1.14. In six of the seven matches of the current draw of the UCL, Munich received no more than one warning, in the first meeting 1/8 – one yellow.
• Bayern have won 10 of 17 matches at home against Italian teams (3 draws, 4 losses).
• Bayern have been eliminated in the last 7 UCL playoffs when they lost the first game.
• The last time Bayern were beaten both home and away in the Champions League was by Real Madrid in the 2016/17 season.
• Lazio have lost 3 of their last 4 matches in Serie A.
• Bayern have won the European Cup 6 times, the last trophy to date the team won in 2020. Last season they reached the quarterfinals of the tournament, where they lost to the future winner Manchester City.
• The best achievement of Lazio in European tournaments is the team’s victory in the UEFA Cup in 1998-1999 season. In the current Champions League, the Romans finished second in Group E, behind Atletico Madrid in first place.

What has been said before the match:

Thomas Tuchel, who announced he will resign after the current season, gave a preview for the upcoming match:

“I can say that no one has more ambition to win tomorrow’s game than me. The situation is clear for tomorrow. We have to win by two goals against an Italian team. Pressure is also part of performing at the top level.”

“Pressure is needed to perform extraordinary things. The state of play is clear. We need to win, and do so against a well-organized Sarri team. We hope the fans and the atmosphere will push us so we can achieve our goal of winning by two goals.”

“We were able to see the desire in the game against Freiburg. But we were too emotional in our reaction to conceding, and lost our heads a bit. The desire was clear to see throughout the whole game. The change of structure we made at halftime worked well. We had a very good second half. That was the game analysis. The team knows that.”

“The team is getting support. That’s my job and my conviction. We helped them with a change of structure last time out. We need to be a little more aggressive in our challenges. The team will continue to receive support, especially at a time when things are tough. The desire is clear to see. Tomorrow it’s about being there from the first minute.”

“Patience is required tomorrow. It’s about not getting frustrated, not losing our heads, not completely opening up. Losing our structure against Freiburg meant we faced a lot of counter-attacks. We don’t have any time to lose. We have 90 minutes. We can’t wait to attack. Time is on Lazio’s side. We need a mix of cool heads and emotion. You should be able to see from the start that we want to score goals.”

Gaffer of SS Lazio Mauricio Sarri ahead of the UCl clash with FC Bayern Munich:

“More than excited, we need to be courageous and determined. Tomorrow’s match will be very tough, we will need a spirit of sacrifice and suffering. In soccer nothing is impossible. Playing every three days sometimes pays for the effort.”

“Ours is a path to take and playing games like this also serves us in this respect to become mentally competitive. In the last period I have positive feelings, it seems to me that something has changed within the group.”

“It will not be easy to get the qualification. They have boundless quality and we will have to struggle defensively but also try to attack. With Milan we played a great game. We did not suffer even in numerical inferiority. We hope that the bitterness of Friday will turn into positive energy for tomorrow”

“I thank the fans for coming to support us. I hope they make their voices heard and can go home less angry than Friday night. FC Bayern has great players and also important youngsters. We will do well tomorrow from a physical point of view, hopefully they will leave us some space.”

Bayern Munich vs Lazio Prediction:

Progress in the UEFA Champions League represents the most feasible chance to redeem the 23/24 season. Bayern needs a convincing win by two goals or more, which means they will take risks and go forward with great effort. Therefore, we should expect a goal-rich match. There are doubts that the Romans will again be able to create any serious drama for the German champions, who have the second best defense in the German top flight. Especially at the 70,000-seater Allianz Arena, where fans who understand the importance of this match will be pushing the Reds onwards. Lazio have only accumulated 0.8 xG in their previous two Serie A away games. FCB are the most dangerous team in the Bundesliga with 61.4 expected goals scored in 24 league matches. Conversion rate in the last three league matches is also decent: they have scored 2 goals in each. And the Eagles’ defense is not renowned for its reliability: in away matches in Italy they concede 1.46 goals per 90 minutes (10th in Serie A in this aspect). Despite all the present issues, Harry Kane and company will pull themselves together and achieve a victory exploiting immense motivation and willpower to progress to the next round of the UCL. 

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Bayern will win and the match total will be over 2.5 – Yes.