AC Milan vs Inter Milan. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

unnamed   2024 04 22T130744.036
AC Milan's Milan derby drought since 2022 begs the question: can they halt Inter's Scudetto clinch in the 33rd round?

AC Milan will host FC Inter Milan in the Serie A 33rd-round match at the San Siro Stadium. The fixture will take place on Tuesday, April 23, beginning at 00:15 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

AC Milan News & Current Form: 

The current season has been quite challenging for Stefano Pioli’s side. They’ve been eliminated from all tournaments and lag significantly behind Inter in the league, trailing by a whopping 14 points. If Juventus FC hadn’t given up after their defeat to Nerazzurri in the 23rd round (0:1), Rossoneri would likely be sitting comfortably in third place in the Serie A standings.

The Devils have encountered significant difficulties when facing opponents of equal or greater strength. Recently, under Pioli’s guidance, they were knocked out of the UEFA Europa League in the quarter-finals by AS Roma (0:1 and 1:2). In the second leg, their opponent scored two quick goals: Gianluca Mancini found the net in the 12th minute, followed by Paulo Dybala in the 22nd. Interestingly, for the majority of the return leg, the Wolves played with a numerical disadvantage, as Roma’s defender, Zeki Celik, received a red card in the 31st minute.

Olivier Giroud – AC Milan’s enduring leading goal-scorer

However, neither the numerical superiority nor the rich experience and skill of Olivier Giroud, nor the partnership of Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao, nor Pioli’s tactical acumen could even secure a draw. Nonetheless, their season’s minimum goal of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League will certainly be achieved, especially with the news that Serie A will be represented by as many as five teams in the revamped European competition.

Throughout the season, Milan have suffered five defeats in the Italian top division: against AC Monza (2:4), Atalanta BC (2:3), Udinese Calcio (0:1), Juventus (0:1), and Inter (1:5). In the past derby the Red and Blacks often dominated possession and spent more time in attack. Yet, what good is that if the opponent attacks much more dangerously and scores five times as many goals?

In the 32nd round, Milan played a 3:3 draw away against US Sassuolo Calcio, with a non-starting lineup initially fielded. This led to the guests trailing 1:3 during the match, but they found the strength to turn the game around after making substitutions, equalizing thanks to goals from Leao, Luka Jovic, and Noah Okafor. Consequently, there have been no victories in their last three matches, plus a defeat to Roma at San Siro (0:1), ending Milan’s streak of seven consecutive wins in the spring segment. 

In their last three games, Pioli’s team has shown weakness in defense, conceding six goals, sometimes due to silly mistakes in front of their own goal. However, their attacking prowess remains intact, as Rossoneri have scored at least one goal in 21 out of 22 matches in 2024.

On April 23rd, one of the most significant football events will take place — the Milan derby. When Inter and Milan meet, it’s always compelling, but this upcoming match holds special significance. If Nerazzurri win, they will clinch the Serie A title ahead of schedule.

This scenario is far from ideal for the hosts. If the Snakes are destined to win Serie A, then let it not be in the fixture against them. The Rossoneri themselves recently clinched the Scudetto—not too long ago, in the season before last—so losing in the upcoming match would be doubly painful for them.

Nevertheless, Pioli’s proteges undoubtedly aim to lift their spirits and those of their fans in the derby, aiming to become the first team to defeat the league leaders in the championship for a very long period.

Unfortunately for the fans, the Striped Ones approach the match with important personnel absences and a negative emotional background. Firstly, Pierre Kalulu and Malick Thiaw will miss the match. One defender is injured, while the other cannot play due to accumulating too many yellow cards. Secondly, following their elimination from the Europa League, news has emerged about the departure of Stefano Pioli at the end of the season.

According to sources, Rossoneri are considering Paulo Fonseca, currently in charge of Lille, as current coach’s successor. The management of the Italian club highly values the former Roma coach’s work in France. It’s also noted that there have already been informal contacts between the parties.

Inter Milan News & Current Form: 

Simone Inzaghi’s team is on the brink of clinching the Scudetto: following the derby against Milan, the title could already be within the grasp of the nominal guests at San Siro. However, a draw would still leave theoretical chances for their neighbors to catch up with Inter. Yet, only theoretically, as any slip-up by the Rossoneri, or a victory secured by their neighbors, would spell the end of the championship race. For the Snakes, winning the title would mark a jubilee – their 20th triumph, placing them second only to Juventus (36).

There’s hardly anything sweeter than winning the championship title on the home turf of your eternal rival. While the stadium technically belongs to both clubs, this match will be considered home turf for Milan, primarily ensuring a significant ticket allocation advantage for their fans.

In the top leagues, only Bayer 04 Leverkusen have secured the title so far, and Inter have a chance to replicate their feat, becoming champions five rounds before the finish (the Bundesliga concludes a week earlier than Serie A, and exactly one week has passed after Leverkusen’s triumph).

Inzaghi has done remarkably impressive work. During his years at Inter, he has forged a team with excellent understanding and a fantastic core of leaders. Special mention goes to Yann Sommer, Federico Dimarco, Hakan Calhanoglu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and the captain, Lautaro Martinez.

Benjamin Pavard missed the last game of Serie A due to a suspension

While other players in the team play crucial roles, the aforementioned individuals deliver results. The goalkeeper is incredibly reliable, the defender and midfielders provide such precise penetrating passes that opponents seem to play without a defense at all. Meanwhile, the forward calmly converts chances and aids in developing attacks.

We won’t delve into the statistics of each player individually, overall numbers are far more telling. Under the guidance of Simone Inzaghi, Inter Milan have lost only 1 out of 32 matches in the Serie A, drawing five times. During this period, they’ve conceded a mere 17 goals while scoring a whopping 77.

By the way, Martinez’s contract will soon be extended. The new agreement between the parties will span five years, with the player receiving a salary of 9 million euros per season. An official announcement regarding the extension is expected after the season concludes. Argentinian has been playing for the Italian team since July 2018. In total, for Nerazzurri, Lautaro has played 277 matches, scored 128 goals, and provided 42 assists.

The team lost most of their points in the first half of the season. They didn’t encounter significant issues against Roma (1:0 and 4:2) or Atalanta (2:1 and 4:0). Difficulties only arose against Bologna FC 1909, who had a fantastic season. The Blue and Blacks were eliminated from the Coppa Italia, losing to them in the round of 16 – 1:1 (0:1 in extra time). Simone Inzaghi’s team exited European competitions even earlier than the upcoming opponent, losing to Atletico de Madrid in the Champions League round of 16.

In the 31st round of the national championship, they snatched a victory against Udinese in the 95th minute, while in the 32nd round, they led twice but conceded at home against Cagliari Calcio in the 83rd minute, resulting in a 2:2 draw. Martinez and Benjamin Pavard missed this game – both players were serving suspensions for accumulating yellow cards before the derby.

After these two matches, the coach admitted that his team had played poorly, allowing opponents too much space, especially on counterattacks, and praised their opponents.

Additionally, Inter won the Supercoppa Italiana, defeating SS Lazio (3:0) and SSC Napoli (1:0), marking Inzaghi’s fifth victory in the tournament as a coach. No other gaffer has won this trophy more often, making it the perfect time to add another title to his collection.

AC Milan form guide: W-W-W-L-D-L

Inter Milan form guide: W-L-D-W-W-D

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Head-To-Head Record:

AC MilanDrawInter Milan
  • May 10, 2023: AC Milan 0 – 2 Inter Milan (UEFA Champions League);
  • May 16, 2023: Inter Milan 1 – 0 AC Milan (UEFA Champions League);
  • September 16, 2023: Inter Milan 5 – 1 AC Milan (Serie A).

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Predicted XI:

AC Milan’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Gabbia, Hernandez; Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud.

Inter Milan’s possible starting lineup (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez.

Statistical preview of the match AC Milan vs Inter Milan:

  • Milan’s First XI average age is 27.5 years, Inter’s First XI average age is 30.2 years.
  • The total value of Milan’s squad is 533 mln euros, while the total of Inter comes up to 622 mln euros.
  • Andrea Colombo has been appointed as the center referee. The referee has already served 14 games this season, showing an average of 5.6 yellow cards and also whistles 24 fouls per game. 
  • For the whole season, the Nerazzurri lost only 1 match in Serie A, and it happened back in September last year in the match against Sassuolo. 
  • Inter continue to have a series of 5 victories over Stefano Pioli’s Milan, during which only 1 goal has been conceded by Nerazzurri.
  • In terms of possession the teams have very close average percentages this season – 56.81% and 56.41% respectively, but in the last 3 face-to-face duels Milan have significantly outperformed Inter on this indicator. 
  • Despite all the principality and tension of this confrontation, there was only 1 player suspension in it over the last 10 matches, and it happened in the season 2021/22.
  • In none of the previous 4 face-to-face meetings, the rivals have not served more than 8 corners together.
  • Milan and Inter very rarely receive an abnormally high number of yellow cards in games against each other. In the 1st round match, match official Simone Sozza awarded only 4 warnings. 
  • Highest scorers of AC Milan in Serie A: Olivier Giroud (13+8), Christian Pulisic (10+6), Rafael Leao (7+8).
  • The team’s highest scorers of Inter in Serie A: Lautaro Martinez (23+2), Marcus Thuram (11+7), Hakan Çalhanoglu (11+3).
  • Milan have won 15 out of 20 home matches in the tournament.
  • In the last 4 matches of the championship Rossoneri scored at least 2 goals, while the Nerazzurri have such a series of only 3 games.

What has been said before the match:

Ahead of the Milan derby, Stefano Pioli, coach of AC Milan, expressed confidence in his players’ ability to break their five-game losing streak against their opponents who are vying for the Scudetto:

“Pride, redemption, belonging, responsibility, all good terms to describe the derby that awaits us. Because of the league table, the Europa League exit, and for the fact that they want to win the Scudetto in this game, we have a big opportunity. A victory would be important for several reasons.”

“I have a lot of faith in my players, they know how important the game is. The more you play and gain trust if you understand how to stay in the game, it will be fundamental not to give away chances at the start like we have done in recent derbies. We had high expectations in the fixture earlier this season, then we weren’t able to overcome some obstacles during the game. As far as the tactical choices go, we are open to every option.”

“In the two games against Roma, we weren’t able to play at our level, especially in terms of quality and energy. They were two balanced games, they had more determination in specific moments. We didn’t know how to react to being put in trouble, it was an error for which we paid dearly and tomorrow we cannot allow ourselves to make the same mistakes. Maximum focus is required.”

“We will need to play an exceptional game, we come off the back of five consecutive defeats against them and they have always given us problems. They deserve to win the Scudetto but we need to do everything we can to ensure it doesn’t happen tomorrow. We have worked hard in the last few days, we are totally focused on preparing for the game.”

Simone Inzaghi, the gaffer of Inter, expressed anticipation for the upcoming Milan derby, highlighting the hard work put in by the team:

“The derby is always the derby, there is a really good feeling, we have worked hard and well because tomorrow could be a special day for the entire Inter family. We still have to train today and tomorrow to best prepare and to play a good derby.”

“Tomorrow may be the big day, we hope so and we’re working hard to make it so, but it isn’t an obsession, we have done what we’ve had to do since 13 July. We have had a dominating campaign with many threats, now the climb is about to finish and we want to look around at the view. Let’s hope it arrives tomorrow but we know what we have done.”

“Pioli is a good coach and a great person, we worked together at Lazio and he was always there. He has had a good journey with AC Milan, I wish him the best from Wednesday onwards.”

“Victories and trophies mean a lot, but I am happy with the synergy created between Club and fans. I’ve lived in Milan for three years and after three months, those who I met gave me compliments for how we were playing. It is the greatest compliment for me, alongside the trophies we have won.”

AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction:

If the Nerazzurri find a victory on Tuesday, this game will turn out to be their last one of the season that has any Seria A importance. In the top leagues, only Bayer has secured the title so far. Inter have a chance to repeat their result by becoming champions five rounds before the finish considering that the Bundesliga ends a week earlier than Serie A. The Nerazzurri have not been at their best lately, but for the derby, they are sure to pull together and show everything of their ability. If Lautaro Martinez and Co. win today, they could secure their sixth Derby della Madonnina in a row. AC Milan accomplished this achievement twice between 1911 and 1913 and between 1946 and 1948. What a time for Simone Inzaghi’s team to rewrite history. Inter is a better team in terms of the squad, more high-powered in terms of play and also simply more consistent. Especially since the Devils are experiencing a decline. Still, the Rossoneri are unlikely to leave the pitch without a scored goal, but their opponents are expected to win.

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: both teams will score and Inter will win – Yes.