Spain vs Georgia. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

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Will the Georgians end the Spanish unbeaten streak?

Spain will face Georgia in the UEFA EURO 2024 round of 16 match at the Cologne Stadium. The fixture will take place on Monday, July 1, beginning at 00:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Spain News & Current Form: 

The Spanish team is in excellent spirits and is currently one of the main favourites to win this European tournament. The squad is well-balanced, with a mix of experienced players and fresh young talent, providing strength in depth across all positions. This blend of youth and experience is a significant advantage for the team.

Spain’s most recent international success came in 2023 when they won the UEFA Nations League, defeating Italy 1:0 in the semi-finals and overcoming Croatia in a penalty shootout (5:4) in the final. At the last EURO in 2020, Spain secured a bronze medal, narrowly missing out on the final after losing to the Azzurri in the semi-finals via penalties (2:4).

The Spanish collective under the guidance of Luis de la Fuente qualified for the current championship without any issues, finishing top of their group. They managed to surpass second-placed Scotland by four points and had an impressive goal difference of 25:5. 

Among all the favourites, the Reds received the highest ratings for their performance in the group stage. Not only were the Red Fury the first to qualify for the playoffs, but they also won their group of death automatically after the second round. They amassed the maximum number of points (9), finishing five points ahead of second-placed Italy. Spain was the only team to go through the group stage without dropping any points and without conceding a single goal while scoring five times.

In the first round, they convincingly defeated Croatia with a score of 3:0, controlling the game and looking sharp in attack. They put significant pressure on the opponent’s defence, which eventually crumbled. This was followed by a 1:0 victory over Italy, thanks to an own goal by Riccardo Calafiori. In the final round, they overcame Albania with a score of 1:0, with Ferran Torres scoring in the 13th minute from a Dani Olmo assist. After taking an early lead, the Reds slowed down and couldn’t add to their tally.

Dani Olmo provided an assist that led to a victory for the Spanish team over Albania

Spain have traditionally excelled in passing accuracy at Euro 2024, boasting an 88.5% success rate. However, under their current coach, the team’s verticality in play allows for more frequent chance creation compared to the tenure of Luis Enrique. Despite the predominance of short passes, which account for 89% of their total, the timely long passes add a visually pleasing element for spectators.

Fortunately, Rodri will be available for the upcoming match, having served his suspension against the Balkan team, allowing him to engage more confidently in defensive actions. However, Dani Carvajal, Robin Le Normand, and backup defender Dani Vivian, who only played in the third-round match, remain on caution and are at risk of suspension if they receive another yellow card.

Georgia News & Current Form: 

The Georgian national team currently boasts a formidable squad, led by the talented Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who has been impressing at Italian club SSC Napoli for several years now. At this tournament, goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who plays for Valencia CF in La Liga, has been outstanding. Another player worth mentioning is forward Georges Mikautadze, who is leading the Euros in combined goals and assists (three goals and one assist). In their last match against Portugal, he scored a penalty and provided an assist. Several new stars have emerged during this tournament, and it’s likely we will see some transfers to top clubs from the Caucasian team.

Before this year, the Crusaders had never played in the final stages of the Euros or the FIFA World Cup, making this a historic event for them. Their worst result was finishing last in their group during the 2010 World Cup qualifiers, where they collected only 3 points from 10 matches.

Georges Mikautadze is the leader of EURO in combined goals and assists

Georgia qualified for the current European tournament through successful playoff rounds, where they first defeated Luxembourg (2:0) and then edged out Greece in a penalty shootout (4:2) to secure their spot. In the group stage of Euro 2024, the Crossed Ones performed well and deservedly progressed to the playoffs, finishing third in their group. They amassed 4 points in 3 matches, placing them second in the ranking of the best third-placed teams, with only four spots available.

The tournament started poorly for Georgia with a defeat to Turkey (1:3), where both teams displayed good attacking football, but the Turks were more clinical. This was followed by a draw with the Czech Republic (1:1), where the men of Sagnol were fortunate. The Czechs pressed them hard, taking 26 shots (11 on target) and creating 3.09 xG, but couldn’t find the winning goal as the ball seemed enchanted, refusing to go in.

The decisive moment for Georgia came in the third match, where they sensationally defeated Portugal (2:0). Kvaratskhelia scored an early goal that stunned the 6th best world team, and early in the second half, they doubled their lead and defended solidly. Notably, the opponent had 68% possession.

The team under the mentorship of French legend Willy Sagnol has proven to be one of the most efficient at Euro 2024, playing a strict counter-attacking style to overcome strong opponents and qualify for the playoffs from third place. Without Mamardashvili’s phenomenal performances in goal, Georgia would not have reached the round of 16, as the goalkeeper equalled the Euro record for the number of saves in the group stage (21). Despite their inspiration from the victory over the team of Cristiano Ronaldo, they face their toughest challenge yet: Spain, the only team in the tournament to win all three matches without conceding a single goal.

“We have great respect for the Spanish team. We’ve played many matches against them and know them very well. Spain and Portugal are among the strongest teams, but today we showed that any team can be beaten,” Kvaratskhelia said.

“There are no easy opponents in the European Championships, and we will try to play as best as we can. We respect everyone, but we will fight for victory.”

It’s worth noting that Georgia averaged just 36.4% possession in the group stage (the third-lowest). However, this was enough to score 4 goals, twice earning and converting penalties. The Georgians took only 8.7 shots per match on average. On the other hand, Sagnol’s team received just 6 yellow cards and finished Group F without any red cards. FC Universitatea midfielder Anzor Mekvabishvili played only one hundred minutes in the first stage of Euro 2024, but even that was enough for the 23-year-old to earn two yellow cards and a suspension for the round of 16 match.

Spain form guide: D-W-W-W-W-W

Georgia form guide: W-W-W-L-D-W

Spain vs Georgia Head-To-Head Record:

  • September 5, 2021: Spain 4 – 0 Georgia (World Cup Qualification);
  • September 8, 2023: Georgia 1 – 7 Spain (UEFA EURO);
  • November 19, 2023: Spain 3 – 1 Georgia (UEFA EURO).

Spain vs Georgia Predicted XI:

Spain’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Laporte, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams.

Georgia’s possible starting lineup (5-3-2): Mamardashvili; Tsitaishvili, Dvali, Kashia, Kverkvelia, Kakabadze; Kochorashvili, Kiteishvili, Chakvetadze; Kvaratskhelia, Mikautadze.

Statistical preview of the match Spain vs Georgia:

  • The Georgian national team holds 74th place in the FIFA ranking of national squads, while the Spanish collective is ranked 8th.
  • Spain’s First XI average age is 26.5 years, and Georgia’s First XI average age is 27.3 years.
  • François Letexier has been appointed as the centre referee. The match official has already served twenty-six games this season, showing an average of 4 yellow cards and also whistling 21 fouls per game. 
  • Spain have conceded only 1 goal in their last five matches.
  • Georgia have one defeat in the last six meetings, while the team has not conceded more than one goal in the last six matches. At the current Euros, Giorgi Mamardashvili is averaging just 1 in 6 shots on goal.
  • In 4 of the Red Fury’s last 6 matches, they have scored 3 goals or more per game.
  • Georgia conceded an average of 1.00 goals per game in their last 5 games and scored an average of 1.40 goals per game.
  • In the last 5 games, Spain conceded an average of 0.20 goals per game and scored an average of 3.00 goals per game.

What has been said before the match:

Spanish left-back Alejandro Grimaldo emphasised the team’s shift in perspective and highlighted the team’s resilience and cautious approach, acknowledging past doubts and current expectations while maintaining focus on their goal:

“A month ago, we hardly had a chance, people and the press said. Now we’re favourites. This changes quickly. Being favourites doesn’t help us at all, we don’t want that pressure. We’ve always said we came here to win the Euros and we still have that mentality but we know we have to proceed game-by-game, step-by-step, and for sure big happiness will come.”

“What happened a few months ago is in the past now. Football changes quickly. We know this is going to be a tough game. The team is focused and confident of playing a great game and reaching the quarterfinals.”

“It’s all or nothing, you can’t make a mistake. We need to go out from the first minute without errors. We’re just focused on ourselves, and it’s going well for us so far.”

Spain vs Georgia Prediction:

Spain has confidently cruised through the group stage of the Euros, becoming the only team to claim three victories. Courageous Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and teammates are not bothered by this fact, believing they have everything to stop Luis de la Fuente’s wards. In their last match against Portugal, the Georgians showed that they are completely fearless and don’t care about the class difference, playing bold and self-assertive football.

However, playing against Portugal’s second team and the incentivised tournament favourites are two different things. La Furia Roja is a very balanced, technically gifted and cohesive team, which shows a high level of tactical organisation. Sixteen-year-old phenomenon Lamine Yamal and his partners play in a very versatile style and may have plenty of ideas to frustrate the sluggish Georgian defence. 

The performance of La Liga’s Giorgi Mamardashvili, emerging as the tournament’s best goalkeeper, will have a lot to do with it. The goalie of Valencia has already averted 3.6 goals, which marks a record for the group stage of the Euros in the XXI century. But he still cannot stop the monstrous Spanish attack alone. The Georgians allow their opponents too much (worst Expected Goals Difference at Euro 2024 – 4.1) and only the exceptional realisation of their chances, as well as a large share of luck coupled with the heroics of the goalkeeper, allowed the White Reds to celebrate their first-ever playoff progression.

The Crusaders have already jumped above their heads and regression to the mean should happen exactly in the match against the tournament favourite. The teams happened to play in the same qualifying group for this tournament and at that time Spain won both matches without much trouble – 7:1 and 3:1. We are going to see a comparable scenario in this encounter. With 0 goals conceded in the playoffs, the Red Fury is showing too confident and convincing football to stumble against the class-inferior Crusaders, who have only three star players to rely on. 

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Spain will win with a handicap (-1.5) – Yes.

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