England vs Germany. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats and more￼
Such games are the reason the UEFA Nations League was created. While everyone understands that England’s rivalry with the Germans might not be the high voltage in the frame of this tournament, there is still a rich history between these big-name teams. From the 1966 classic, when England won the World Cup for the first and last time by beating Germany in the Wembley final to the the 90s, when the Bundesmanschaft defeated the Three Lions in a penalty shoot-out in the 1990 World Cup semi-finals and the 1996 European Championship. It was the result of a match thirty years ago that led forward Harry Lineker to utter a phrase that has become a veritable one:
“Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.”
The match is now going to be more about reputation and motivation: in the last leg of Group A3 of the Nations League, the English are no longer fighting for anything, but simply want to save face before the World Cup, while the Germans want to end a not-so-great campaign on a major note.
Parimatchnews will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.
England News & Current Form:
England became the shock of this year’s Nations League. The finalist of the European Championship was knocked out of the elite division ahead of schedule, and the remaining game now means nothing in terms of the tournament for the English. Anybody can complain about the “Group of Death“, but the Three Lions managed to lose twice to Hungary without scoring a goal. It was these results that hamstrung Southgate’s team and became a crucial part of the failure.
Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden, Mason Mount, Jack Grealish, Tammy Abraham, Trent Alexander-Arnold – how many goals can and should these lads score? We have to agree – a lot, they are top stars that play for the top European clubs every week. But something has gone wrong, and in this Nations League campaign they have only managed to produce one goal – and that came from a penalty kick.
“It’s difficult for me to be too critical of the performance as we had more possession, more shots, more shots on target. I personally felt the performance was a step in the right direction… Everyone will only react to the scoreline. But I think as a team we can take the positives from this match,”said Gareth Southgate after the game against Italy.
Here is how the “positive” statistics look according to the specialist: the English did control the ball slightly (53% on 47%), threatened more often (14 on 10 shots) and shot more on target (4-3).
Southgate is trying to keep the spirit upbeat in such a deplorable situation, but optimism seems superfluous. The fact that the head coach praises the paltry statistical advantage that the national team had in Milan only emphasizes the current problematics.
As in the case of the Germans, it is certain that Gareth Southgate will not field a maximum competitive line-up, although his situation is a bit different. After their shocking flop, they need to make amends in front of the home crowd and reduce the fervour around the national team. Although, he can once again ignore public opinion and play the way he wants, namely by bringing in an abundance of reserves.
Southgate may finally decide to move away from the 3-4-3 formation that was not fruitful in the Nations League to the more familiar 4-2-3-1. Injury of Kalvin Phillips will not allow us to see the usual duo of destroyers in the CDM zone, which has been so successful in cracking the offense of many opponents. Perhaps Southgate was wrongly criticised for such a defensive formation, as when he puts one of the more creative players alongside Declan Rice, the whole balance in midfield is immediately crumbled.
Another thing that certainly couldn’t hurt to fix is Kyle Walker in the centre-back trio. Ben White’s ears must have been burning during the game against Italy – it was Southgate regretting not calling in an Arsenal defender who would have come in handy. By the match with Germany John Stones‘ suspension will be over, and it will be a good opportunity to try him in the three-man line or even to restructure the entire defensive line, including removing Harry Maguire, who is recently in really poor form. Such experiments can help a lot in the run-up to the World Cup, to take even the example of Manchester United that benched their captain, with the results improving almost overnight.
Germany News & Current Form:
The German national team have endured a painful period of rebuilding in recent years, including the departure of glorified coach Joachim Löw, a generational change and, as a consequence, a regression in performance. After becoming world champions in Brazil (2014) and winning bronze medals at the Euro 2016 in France, Germany have experienced failure in Russia, failing to progress out of the group, while at the Euros 2020 they were stopped by England in the ⅛ final.
Hans-Dieter Flick, the former FC Bayern coach, took charge of the team, and we have already seen the result of his efforts in the World Cup qualifying tournament – nine wins out of ten and goal difference of +32.
However, the Bundesmanschaft, just as their sixth-round opponents, were playing well below their potential in this Nations League campaign. In contrast with the Islanders, though, they showed good results: scoring eight goals, conceding six, and can still, in theory, climb to second place. The only problem is that of those eight goals, five were scored in a single game. The national team in their current form suffered an ignominious defeat at home to Hungary – conceding a beautiful goal from a corner. The score remained minimal only thanks to the heroic saves of Marc-André ter Stegen.
After losing to Marco Rossi’s men, the DFB Eleven have squandered any chance of top spot in the group, but on the other hand, they remain safe thanks to the English. The cycle can be considered over and the remaining match can be used to take a better look at non-core players to form a final selection for the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. It’s a good time to rotate the squad.
Yet Germany have an unresolved problem with their centre-forward position. No serious objectives can be accomplished with only Timo Werner available at that position. Being too dependent on a player who has serious issues with finishing is a deliberately screwed-up plan. It might be better to return to the option of playing without a pure centre-forward or with a false nine in that position. However, Kai Havertz, who has at times filled such roles at club and national team, is also very far from his optimum form at the moment.
England form guide (all competitions): W-L-D-D-L-L
Germany form guide (all competitions): D-D-D-D-W-L
England vs Germany Head-To-Head Record:
The teams have crossed paths twice in recent years, and both of them were hardly successful for the Germans. The English first knocked them out in the 1/8 finals of the Euros 2020 and then denied revenge in the first round of the Nations League. Harry Kane’s 88th-minute penalty shot sealed a draw for his side. That goal, by the way, is still the only one the Three Lions have scored in this group.
England vs Germany Predicted XI:
England possible starting lineup (3-4-3): Ramsdale; Stones, Tomori, Maguire; Trippier, Rice, Bellingham, Chilwell; Mount; Kane, Sterling.
Germany possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Ter Stegen; Hofmann, Sule, Schlotterbeck, Raum; Kimmich, Gundogan; Musiala, Muller, Sane; Havertz
Statistical preview of the match England vs Germany:
- The last 4 head-to-head encounters have seen a total of less than 2.5 .
- England are winless in this Nations League campaign (2 draws, 3 defeats). In these 5 games, the Three Lions have scored just one goal.
- England have the worst goal difference – minus 5.
- England have not lost in 11 of the last 12 home games.
- Germany have conceded in 14 of their 15 games in the Nations League.
- The German national team have won only one of its 7 away matches in the Nations League (3 draws, 3 defeats).
- The German national team have not lost a match since their defeat to England at UEFA EURO 2020 in June 2021.
- Germany have scored the most goals in the group – 8.
- Joshua Kimmich, Timo Werner and Jonas Hofmann each scored 2 goals in the Nations League.
What has been said before the match:
Gareth Southgate, the England national team gaffer:
“That is part of the territory. For me, it’s a great challenge to lead the team through a moment like this. You are not going to have six years as we’ve had without a spell where you are going to have some tough results, and you’ve got to show resilience to come through those moments. The results haven’t been at the level we want, that we require, so no matter what job you have in football that would be the case.”
“Of course with the national team that noise is going to be louder and more widespread – I understand that. The cycle of war with the media – we are somewhere in the middle of that, it is an experience that I knew at some point would probably come with this job so I have to accept that. I’m not hiding from it… We are not enjoying it but we have to keep doing the right things every day to keep improving.”
Raheem Sterling, the England national team winger:
“It’s been a tough period but I don’t think any of the boys will be thinking that we don’t have a good chance in the winter – that’s the belief that we have as a group… The results don’t show that right now but I strongly believe, with the boys, that when we go over there in the winter that we’ll have a good one… There’s no need to panic. These results are bad but we’ve got good things to come.”
Hansi Flick, the Germany national team gaffer:
“The England squad is outstanding and has a lot of quality. Of course, the coach is always criticised when things don’t go well. But he is one of the best coaches in England’s history and they have a great team. We need a top performance tomorrow. It’s one of the best teams in the world. For me, it’s definitely one of the best teams.”
“It’s always something special against England. We have something to prove after Friday’s game against Hungary and we want to show that on the pitch. Always important when you’re winning. It gives the team a lot of optimism – especially against a team like England. We can’t afford to lose confidence and everyone knows that the players still have other things on their minds. There are many nations that have players who are also playing in the Champions League and have a high level of workload during the season. So, once the 26-man squad is determined as a result, I’m convinced that it will give us another boost. I have a positive attitude and trust the team absolutely. We have ticked off the game against Hungary.”
England vs Germany Prediction:
Both teams must have been frustrated with their recent results, but the Germans at least demonstrated that they were ready to get their act together and show a bit of anger by pulling off an impressive win in the Nations League, while the English spent the whole tournament in a kind of half-asleep state. Germany’s game against Hungary (or rather one half of it) also left a better impression than England’s game against Italy. The meeting on Foggy Albion will probably end in a draw, which looks like a realistic goal and the best possible outcome for the home side, whilst the Germans have a good chance of winning.
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Parimatch News staff prediction:
We say: Germany will not lose – Yes.