Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

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After a challenging season, Bayern sets their sights on European glory. Can they topple the Spanish kings and claim the crown?

FC Bayern Munich will host Real Madrid CF in the UEFA Champions League semifinal match at the Allianz Arena. The fixture will take place on Wednesday, May 1, beginning at 00:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Bayern Munich News & Current Form: 

The current season has proven to be disappointing for Bayern Munich, who relinquished the Bundesliga title for the first time in 11 years to Bayer 04 Leverkusen. This signifies that the club’s sole chance at any trophy lies in the Champions League, given their defeat in the DFB-Supercup and early exit from the DFB-Pokal against FC Saarbrücken.

Certainly, the Star of the South is currently far from its optimal form and glory days. However, hunger and motivation, combined with individual skill, have propelled them to the semi-finals of the most prestigious championship.

Some may attribute this to the “Harry Kane curse,” and they would have a point. The Englishman is having an outstanding season: in 31 Bundesliga matches, he scored 35 goals, achieving this feat faster than anyone in history. The previous record belonged to Uwe Seeler of Hamburger SV and lasted for 60 years, since 1964.

Taking into account all competitions, Kane has scored 42 times in 42 matches — the best result in the striker’s career. The previous maximum was set in the 2017/18 season with 41 goals for Tottenham Hotspur FC. Additionally, Harry reached the milestone of 400 goals, with the majority scored for Spurs — 280, and 62 for the England national team

It’s quite a feat considering Munich’s struggles throughout the season. They don’t appear cohesive, possibly because Thomas Tuchel isn’t the right coach for Bayern. His preferred ideas and game structure don’t align with the club’s philosophy.

Moreover, the understanding between coach and his players is much less cohesive than in the Spanish team, for example. The team is united in their goals, but lacks common values and emotional balance. At one point, the coach faced significant disagreements with the long-standing leader of Munich, Joshua Kimmich. Although the conflict was postponed, it may reignite with renewed vigor after the upcoming match.

Last season, the gaffer failed to prevent a brawl between Sadio Mane and Leroy Sane after their Champions League exit. This was a telling moment, indicating that Tuchel struggles to control the dressing room, and the team as a whole. In matches against strong opponents, Bayern’s attack often appears powerless.

Amidst this, discussions are ongoing about who should replace the current coach. Honorary club president Uli Hoeneß mentioned the name of Ralf Rangnick, who has worked with VfB Stuttgart, FC Schalke 04, Hannover 96, and TSG Hoffenheim, and currently coaches the Austrian national team. However, Munich fans vehemently oppose his candidacy.

Hoeneß also revealed that the club dared to approach Xabi Alonso, who defeated them this season. However, the coach of the newly crowned champions refused to leave his team. Thus, according to the president and his spouse, Alonso proved to be a true professional in every sense.

After the UCL of 2021, the curse of quarter-finals has begun to haunt the German team— the team failed to pass this stage for three consecutive seasons. Bayern’s tormentors were Manchester City (0:3, 1:1), Paris Saint-Germain (2:3, 1:0), and even Villarreal CF (0:1, 1:1). The common thread was poor performance in the first leg and inability to bounce back in the second. The streak was broken in the two-legged clash with Arsenal FC — Thomas Tuchel’s team drew at the Emirates (2:2) and won at the Allianz Arena (1:0).

Thomas Tuchel to leave Bayern at the end of unsuccessful season

After the duel with the Gunners, the Germans defeated FC Cologne (2:0), FC Union Berlin (1:5), and triumphed at home against Eintracht Frankfurt (2:1) last weekend, thanks to Kane’s brace. It’s important to note that Bayern lost three times at home this season, most recently to Borussia Dortmund (0:2). Now, the club’s sole motivation from the South is not to fall below second place. Stuttgart are in contention: the clubs are separated by five points, and they will face each other in the next round at the MHPArena.

After the match with Eintracht, Kane shared his plans for Real Madrid:

“I hope to score a few times. I’m in a good mood and confident,” admitted the forward.

Unfortunately for Munich, they are far from optimal in terms of squad depth for the match. While they could cope with the losses of Bouna Sarr and Sacha Boey, recent injuries to Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sané, and Dayot Upamecano are much more significant blows to the German football giant’s combat readiness. 

Adding to this, the niggling injuries to Jamal Musiala, Konrad Laimer, and Matthijs De Ligt make the situation even more dismal. Although the club medics are more optimistic about these three players’ prospects for Tuesday, the coaching staff understands that there’s no point in protecting the leaders anymore, as the fate of the season will be decided in battles with Real Madrid.

Real Madrid News & Current Form:

Once again, Real Madrid are proving themselves to be the kings of the Champions League. Last year, the Whites suffered a 4:0 defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad in the semi-finals. However, this time they got their revenge, despite facing arguably the toughest opponents in the quarter-finals. Even though Carlo Ancelotti and his team couldn’t defeat the opponent in two matches, everything was decided in a penalty shootout, which was entirely won by Andriy Lunin.

Nevertheless, draws against the Citizens should be considered a significant achievement. Not everyone can withstand the pressure from the team of Pep  Guardiola. It was a display of true class from the Whites, and they can be proud of their progress. Now, the team is just three matches away from lifting the coveted trophy for the 15th time in their history.

19-year-old Arda Güler has recently scored his first goal for Real Madrid

Regarding La Liga, Madrid practically secured the top spot by defeating FC Barcelona in El Clásico last weekend (3:2, with a goal from Jude Bellingham). Thanks to a routine victory last Friday over Real Sociedad (0:1), the guests arrived in Munich with an 18-match unbeaten streak, winning seven of their last eight matches in the Champions League.

In San Sebastián, Carlo Ancelotti made extensive changes to the lineup — replacing nine players compared to the Clásico. The move paid off, with the only goal scored by Arda Güler, marking the 19-year-old Turk’s first start for Real Madrid.

The Spanish confidently lead the table, boasting not only the league’s most reliable defense (22 goals conceded) but also the most prolific attack (71 goals). In the current season, the Whites have only lost to one club and only at one stadium — Atletico de Madrid at the Metropolitano Stadium. This occurred in La Liga on September 24th (1:3) and in the Copa del Rey on January 18th (2:4 after extra time). Their unbeaten streak in all competitions now stands at 18 matches, and in Primera, it’s 27.

With the acquisition of Bellingham, Madrid may have found a leader for years to come with unmatched qualities and technique. In 25 La Liga matches and eight UCL games, the 20-year-old midfielder has scored 21 goals and provided eight assists.

Although his scoring prowess is a delightful bonus, Bellingham’s primary role doesn’t involve scoring goals. The Englishman plays an incredibly important role in defense and in attack, and he approaches the upcoming match with a good reserve of energy.

However, Madrid couldn’t completely protect all players from injuries and suspensions for the Champions League semi-finals. Due to yellow card accumulation in Munich, Dani Carvajal won’t be available for Real, and the club’s infirmary still includes Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba

There were doubts about the fitness of Bellingham, and Rodrygo, but over the weekend, all three players were expected to receive treatment to be in close to optimal condition for the crucial European match. By the way, it became clear that Kylian Mbappé will move to Real and will defend the colours of the great Spanish club next season.

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Bayern Munich form guide: L-D-W-W-W-W

Real Madrid form guide: W-D-W-W-W-W

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Head-To-Head Record:

Bayern MunichDrawReal Madrid
  • April 25, 2018: Bayern Munich 1 – 2 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League);
  • May 1, 2018: Real Madrid 2 – 2 Bayern Munich (UEFA Champions League);
  • July 21, 2019: Bayern Munich 3 – 1 Real Madrid (International Champions Cup).

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Predicted XI:

Bayern Munich’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Kim, Dier, Davies; Goretzka, Pavlovic; Muller, Musiala, Gnabry; Kane.

Real Madrid’s possible starting lineup (4-3-1-2): Lunin; Vazquez, Rudiger, Tchouameni, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Kroos; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior.

Statistical preview of the match Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid:

  • Bayern’s First XI average age is 28.4 years, Real’s First XI average age is 26.6 years.
  • The total value of Munich’s squad is 930 mln euros, while the total of Madrid’s comes up to 1.04 bln euros.
  • Clement Turpin has been appointed as the center referee. The match official has already served 28 games this season, showing an average of 3 yellow cards and also whistles 24 fouls per game. 
  • Bayern have not lost in 15 consecutive home matches in the Champions League (12 wins, 3 draws) and have not conceded a goal in 3 consecutive UCL matches on home soil.
  • Real Madrid have not lost in 10 consecutive Champions League matches (7 wins and 3 draws, one of which was converted into a penalty shootout victory over Man City) and have scored in all away games in the UCL this season.
  • The last time Bayern beat Real Madrid in an official match was back in 2012, that’s when they won the first leg 2:1 in the Champions League semi-finals.

What has been said before the match:

Carlo Ancelotti, coach of Real Madrid, acknowledges the significance of past achievements but emphasizes the forthcoming challenge:

 “Everything that’s happened in the past of course holds good memories, but tomorrow will be a different story. First game of the semi-final, we’re confident but aware we’re up against a team with great attributes, quality and real individual talent.” 

“As always, we’re thrilled to be here because not many people thought I’d be here giving this press conference today. We have achieved it through effort, hard work and commitment. Now we’re worried and confident in equal measure ahead of a semi-final that could send us into another final. It’s played over 180 minutes, not 90.”

“We are confident but we have great respect for this team. They haven’t had the best season in the Bundesliga but they played a very impressive tie against Arsenal. They were very good in both games. We have to look at that, Arsenal are a very strong side in Europe and they delivered two superb displays. This club’s history is more or less the same as ours in the Champions League and that counts for a lot.”

“If I have anything to say about Tuchel, it’s that he’s a great coach. He’s young and his tactical awareness is fantastic. His teams are very well coached. I have great respect for him, I’m fond of him.”

“Real Madrid are never underrated in this competition. Everyone knows what we can do. To be honest, we feel hugely respected by everyone in this competition.”

Spanish midfielder Fede Valverde emphasizes the formidable challenge posed by Bayern Munich, highlighting their impressive track record:

“Every game is difficult in this competition and every team deserves the utmost respect. Bayern have won many titles and they’re a team like Madrid who fight to the end to get their hands on the trophy. We have to show them the same respect we showed Manchester City.”

“We have to get the best out of our dressing room. We have great players with real quality and commitment, and they really want to win another trophy for Real Madrid.”

“We’re excited. It’s the first time that I play against this team in the competition. I have faith and I’m eager to play. I’m happy for all I’m experiencing with this team. You have to appreciate every moment defending these colors and this jersey. Winning this competition is so valuable and it’s a beautiful thing.”

“I’m enjoying getting so much game time, starting games. It’s beautiful to compete at Real Madrid, I love it and I try to take all I can from the coaching staff and my teammates. We have to make the most of our good form.”

“I have absolute confidence in my team. We have to respect our opposition and the club we’re up against. We have real faith in the players here. The defenders, the midfielders and forwards. We’re excited, hungry to make the final and we’ll fight to do just that.”

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Prediction:

With a trophyless season looming in front of Thomas Tuchel’s team, the last chance for prestige is a Champions League triumph, motivation will be off the charts. The two-match success against Arsenal showed that Munich are well-versed under pressure, thanks to years of continuous experience in the UCL’s knockout stage. Even without being in their optimum form and line-up, the Germans retain their class and keep showing their character. However, Real Madrid is a different level of opponent. 

Los Blancos are leading La Liga with a 13-point lead, scoring in 46 out of 47 matches (with an average total of 2.26 per 90 minutes) and not losing in 18 consecutive games. The Spaniards are highly consistent in important matches which helped them to knock out the reigning Champions League winners in the previous stage. This is the sixth time the team has achieved this feat. After stopping the super-attacking Manchester City, Jude Bellingham and co. are now the favourites to win the competition. The team’s confidence and positive attitude are remarkable, with the recent gutsy win in El Clásico making a significant contribution to this resourceful condition. Thanks to the rotation of the squad in the last round of the Spanish Primera, Carlo Ancelotti kept his key players fresh and has an optimal and maximally combative squad at his disposal. At the same time, Real Madrid had one more day to recover and prepare than their opponent, which is an important factor. 

Bayern are back on the winning track but are still struggling with injury problems. Whether Star of the South’s pragmatic approach, which has become more and more common, will help is a big question, as the Germans need to try to make a comfortable lead before the return leg in Spain. As for the home stands factor, Real can hardly be intimidated by it – Los Blancos have won three times in a row at the Allianz Arena. In this encounter,  we expect the visitors at least not to lose, and the match itself will be more of a tactical confrontation of containment than a goal-attacking fiesta.

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Real Madrid will not lose and the match total will be less than 4.5 – Yes.

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