Bayern Munich vs Arsenal. Prediction and Preview. Probable Lineups, Team News, Stats, and more

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Bayern are pinning all their hopes on the Champions League in the quest for a trophy. Will they be able to beat the Londoners?

FC Bayern Munich will host Arsenal FC in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals return match at the Allianz Arena. The fixture will take place on Thursday, April 18, beginning at 00:30 IST.

Parimatch News will tell you everything you need to know ahead of the upcoming match.

Bayern Munich News & Current Form: 

The current season for Bayern Munich is shaping up to be perhaps the most challenging in the club’s recent history. Following the international break, the team suffered two defeats in the national championship, first at home to Borussia Dortmund (2:0), and then away to FC Heidenheim (3:2).

In the second match, everything started well: Kane opened the scoring with an assist from Serge Gnabry. Then the latter doubled Bayern’s advantage late in the first half, but the joy of the fans was short-lived as the team conceded three goals in the second half and lost the match.

Last Sunday, die Roten finally secured a victory in the national championship. However, the home success against FC Cologne (2:0) amounted to nothing, as Bayer 04 Leverkusen also won and prematurely became the champion for the first time in its own history, ending the 11-year hegemony of the Star of the South in the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, Tuchel’s wards prematurely exited the DFB-Pokal, thus, the team’s sole remaining goal this season is triumph in the Champions League.

The experiment of appointing Thomas Tuchel as head coach looked dubious a year ago, and time has only confirmed the justified doubts regarding Bayern’s management decision. They have already acknowledged their mistake: the coach will leave Munich at the end of the season, and the priority candidate to replace him is still Julian Nagelsmann, whom they dismissed a year ago in favor of inviting the former Chelsea FC coach.

Undoubtedly, teams that are simply playing out the season with a coach they know will depart in the summer rarely achieve success. However, at the knockout stage of the Champions League, there are no problems with motivation and cannot be, especially with the calibre of players Bayern Munich possess. Similarly, there are no doubts about Tuchel’s ability to tactically prepare the team for any given opponent.

As it happens every year, the Reds dominated their group, securing 5 victories and a draw. However, in the first leg of the quarterfinals, Bayern faced stern resistance from SS Lazio, who won the first match in Rome (1:0) thanks to a penalty goal from Ciro Immobile but lost 3:0 at the Allianz Arena due to goals from Harry Kane and Thomas Müller.

In the first leg against Arsenal, the German club showed that despite its problems, it remains competitive (2:2). The endless defensive errors in the first leg were compensated for by the rich experience in international competitions and class. More than half of the club’s squad remembers what it takes to become a Champions League winner and possesses the right mentality and character.

At the Emirates, Bayern didn’t take risks when starting attacks from their own goal, but still found rare opportunities to escape the pressing thanks to Kane’s drops and subsequent passes to his attacking partners. Leroy Sané was particularly lethal in transition phases, directly contributing to both goals scored. The scorer of the first goal, Gnabry, played a dual role, combining attacking duties with dropping back as the fifth defender to better counter the pair of Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka.

For Harry Kane, the scored goal marked his 47th for the club and country this season in all official tournaments, and he also provided 12 assists. The Englishman has set several unique records in the Bundesliga and could play a key role in the upcoming encounter.

If in London Arsenal dominated, attacked more frequently and dangerously, and had more shots on goal, then the return leg should follow a different script. Yes, Bayern has worse team chemistry, especially in defence. The lack of coordination among defenders is one of the main reasons for the complete failure on their home turf.

The yellow card received by Alphonso Davies in the first leg will deprive the Canadian of the opportunity to play in the home match. Also, due to injuries, Bouna Sarr, Gabriel Marušić, Tarek Buchmann, and Sacha Boey will miss the upcoming match. Sané missed the weekend league game due to a muscle injury, but his appearance on Thursday is quite likely, considering the not-so-serious nature of the injury.

Kingsley Coman is set to miss the return game due to a sustained injury

Furthermore, Gnabry sustained an injury in the first leg and will not be able to play against his former club. Additionally, Kingsley Coman suffered a serious injury over the weekend, leaving the winger position exposed. It seems that Jamal Musiala will play there, and Müller will take his place as number 10. Another problem on the left flank is Davies’ disqualification. Given Arsenal’s strength on this flank, Noussair Mazraoui will likely replace the Canadian, rather than defensively incompetent Rafa Guerreiro.

Arsenal News & Current Form: 

Arsenal face the possibility of squandering their chances for triumph in two tournaments within a single week. In the English Premier League, the Londoners are contending for the championship title for the second consecutive year. Their previous season ended disappointingly as they finished only as the country’s runners-up, and now history seems likely to repeat itself.

The blame lies with their failure last weekend when the Gunners unexpectedly lost to Aston Villa FC under the leadership of Unai Emery with a scoreline of 0:2, despite having the opportunity to claim the top spot after the sensational home defeat of Liverpool FC to Crystal Palace FC. It’s worth noting that Emery’s tenure as coach is well remembered in London, as is the contribution of goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.

After leaving the goal empty on several occasions, David Raja conceded 2 goals in the game against Aston Villa.

In the first 20 minutes of the match, the boys of Mikel Arteta relentlessly pressured the guests’ goal. However, their shots mostly targeted the outer side of the net from acute angles. Odegaad, as usual, sought corridors between the central and wide defenders.

Overall, Arsenal created more opportunities before halftime, but Villa almost took the lead. In the 39th minute, Gabriel inexplicably struck the ball strongly into Zinchenko’s back. This resulted in a prime opportunity for Ollie Watkins, the second-highest scorer in the English championship, who struck the crossbar with his shot, narrowly missing the goal. David Raya had no chance of reaching it and watched the trajectory of the shot while lying down.

After the break, nothing changed: Arsenal attacked more frequently, but Villa almost scored at the beginning of the second half. Zinchenko lost the ball, and Youri Tielemans took a shot that hit both the crossbar and the post in a single strike. Overall, the Lions appeared bold enough, unafraid to venture forward from their own goal, and ultimately, the visitors achieved their objective.

A wave of criticism descended upon Oleksandr Zinchenko, who had a very unsuccessful match. This is far from the first time the Ukrainian has let down the Londoners in a crucial moment. His errors last season cost Arteta’s charges the championship.

Additionally, leading defender Gabriel Magalhães played terribly in the match against Aston Villa. He made several mistakes and received one of the worst ratings for the match. Before this, the Gunners’ defence was renowned for its reliability: in 32 Premier League games, they conceded only 26 goals – the fewest.

Fortunately, Arteta has the option to compensate for the lack of defensive solidity if necessary. The attackers of the London club – Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, and Kai Havertz – are in excellent form. Arsenal ranks second in terms of goals scored in the English championship – 75 goals.

Following the defeats of two title contenders in a single day, the top of the table underwent significant changes. Manchester City are now not third but the top team in the league. Recovering two points over six rounds is entirely possible, but after the previous season, it feels like déjà vu – Arsenal similarly lost their advantage in mid-April.

Also, the Red and Whites and playoff games in the Champions League are hard to come by. In the 1/16 round, the task was much more difficult than initially expected – against a tough FC Porto. The first match at Estadio Do Dragao saw a sensation when Galeno scored his side’s winning goal with a spectacular shot in the last minute of the match, giving the Dragons a slight advantage ahead of the return leg.

In the second leg at the Emirates Stadium, the match ended 1:0 in favour of the hosts, with Trossard scoring the crucial goal. Extra time saw no further goals, leading to a penalty shootout where Arsenal emerged victorious, and now they had to settle for just a draw in their home battle with Bayern Munich – 2:2.

In the first match, Arsenal at times appeared much more preferable than their opponent, but a lack of composure led to several glaring defensive errors, which the opponent fully capitalized on. Although the hosts started very powerfully, pressing Bayern aggressively with Odegaard’s high positioning. Equally impressive was the picture in attack, where Saka’s leadership tore through even at a numerical disadvantage, while Ben White consistently troubled Gnabry.

However, several defensive lapses occurred, after which the Gunners failed to recover before halftime. But Arteta managed to turn the tide in the second half through substitutions. Initially, Zinchenko replaced the struggling Jakub Kiwior. A fresh combination of Gabriel Jesus and Trossard facilitated the comeback, orchestrating the equalizing goal.

The Belgian player plays a crucial role in Arsenal’s main European campaign, having levelled the score in the first match. He, alongside Saka and Jesus, has netted four goals in the European competition, two of which came in the playoffs.

Moreover, overall, the Londoners are having a much more stable season and are particularly impressive with their attacking prowess. On average, they score 2.16 goals per 90 minutes in all competitions, and in five out of nine Champions League games, they’ve also managed at least two successful strikes.

Bayern Munich form guide: W-W-L-L-D-W

Arsenal form guide: W-D-W-W-D-L

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Head-To-Head Record:

Bayern MunichDrawArsenal
  • July 19, 2017: Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Arsenal (International Champions Cup);
  • July 18, 2019: Arsenal 2 – 1 Bayern Munich (International Champions Cup);
  • April 9, 2024: Arsenal 2 – 2 Bayern Munich (UEFA Champions League).

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Predicted XI:

Bayern Munich’s possible starting lineup (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Dier, De Ligt, Guerreiro; Laimer, Goretzka; Muller, Musiala, Sane; Kane.

Arsenal’s possible starting lineup (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Martinelli.

Statistical preview of the match Bayern Munich vs Arsenal:

  • Bayern’s First XI average age is 29.1 years, and Arsenal’s First XI average age is 25.3 years.
  • The total value of Bayern’s squad is 929 mln euros, while the total of the English side comes up to 1.12 bln euros.
  • Danny Desmond Makkelie has been appointed as the match official. He has refereed 6 European Cup matches in the 2023/24 season: the average total of yellow cards – 3.5, fouls – 22.17.
  • Thomas Tuchel is on the brink of reaching the Champions League semi-finals with a third team, following previous successes with Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea. The only other coach to achieve this feat is Jose Mourinho.
  • Thomas Muller, who was absent in the first leg at the Emirates Stadium, eagerly anticipates his 150th Champions League appearance. Upon reaching this milestone, he will join an elite group as only the third player to achieve it while representing a single club.
  • FC Bayern Munich remain undefeated in 14 consecutive home matches in Europe’s premier club competition, winning 11 and drawing 3.
  • Bayern are six-time Champions League winners. The last time the German grandee won the title was in 2020.
  • Arsenal have never won the Cup, having reached the final once in 2006.
  • In the matches of the Champions League Bayern serve an average of 5.11 corners, and Arsenal – 4.89. In the first match, the sides served just 3 corners in the whole game.
  • Bayern, including all competitions of the season, score an average of 2.54 goals, while Arsenal score an average of 2.16 goals. 
  • Both teams are obedient in terms of behaviour, with Munich averaging 1.37 yellow cards in the 2023/24 season and the Gunners 1.47. In the first match of the Champions League quarter-finals, the teams together received only 3 cautions.
  • Bayern’s average xG (expected goals) is 2.4 and Arsenal’s is 1.82. 
  • Bayern foul an average of 9.27 times per game, while Arsenal foul an average of 10.96. 

What has been said before the match:

“We have a great opportunity in our Arena. It will be a fantastic atmosphere. We have great belief in ourselves and want to achieve something special,” said Bayern’s  striker Harry Kane.

“We’ll need everything again, the same commitment, passion and tactical discipline as in the first leg. We absolutely want to win the game. We’ll have to push ourselves to the limit and we’ll need every spectator to fight with us, support us and push us to overcome this major hurdle together. We feel ready. We have a game where we can take the next big step in this wonderful competition. We’re determined to put everything on the table,” added the German gaffer Thomas Tuchel.

Coach of Arsenal, Mikel Arteta, expressed his anticipation ahead of a crucial match, emphasizing the readiness of his team built over the past 10 months:

“We have been ready for 10 months and everything we did last season to start that journey in the Champions League after so many years, and tomorrow we have an unbelievable opportunity to make it happen.”

“It will be unbelievable. If we make it happen tomorrow, we will be in the semi-final, and we will be highly emotional – it’s something that we haven’t achieved as a club for the last 15-17 years and that’s the opportunity.”

“Most of our players haven’t experienced a night like this and it’ll be their first one. They’ll be super motivated, they are prepared and confident and it’s something that tomorrow we have to show against an opponent that has experience, but we’ve got to make it happen.

“I want my team to be ourselves, regardless of the stadium. Sometimes you want to do certain things and the opponent doesn’t allow you to do it, and we’re going to be very clear how we’re going to play the game, how we want to play the game, and what is going to give us the best chance to win it.”

Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction:

Arsenal initially had seemed to be the favourites in this pairing, but a draw at the Emirates spoiled the Londoners’ chances. The away game is Bayern’s weak point of the 2023/24 season, before travelling to the Foggy Albion, the Germans managed to win only once in 6 away games (4 losses and 1 draw). The Gunners were struggling to cope with the pressure and therefore failed to earn a comfortable lead before travelling to Germany. It will be much more difficult at the Allianz Arena, where the Bavarians feel quite confident: 15 wins, 2 draws and only 3 defeats in all competitions. In the current UCL, Munich are unbeaten at home: 3 wins and 1 draw. Plus Manuel Neuer and Co. have a lot more experience of continuous performances in the knockout stages of the UCL. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s young squad outside the Emirates has been stormy, losing away in the Champions League to Porto (0-1) and Lens (1-2), drawing with PSV (1-1), and beating only a then-crisis Sevilla (2-1) – poor results against a modest level of opposition.

Mikel Arteta and his coaching staff know how to surprise with their game plan, in the first leg it was particularly noticeable how much the Londoners outclassed the visitors in terms of ideas. We will see a similar scenario now. The recent EPL defeat that may have cost them a trophy will have a sublimating effect rather than an exasperating one. Against Aston Villa, Arsenal’s performance looked more than satisfactory, the result was only hampered by realisation and fatigue, which seems to be a critical factor now as well. At the same time, pragmatic football is the speciality of Thomas Tuchel, and even with 7 injured players, the Munich side has plenty of players capable of delivering a decent performance.

Bayern, due to the expected tremendous support from the home crowd, as well as Arsenal’s unconvincing away performances in UCL 23/24, look to be the favourites for the game. However, the balance of power and inputs shows that it will be a very close and action-packed encounter, which will delight us with goals and possibly extend into extra time – the rivals are worthy of each other. Bayern have scored an average of 2.54 goals in all competitions this season, while Arsenal netted an average of 2.16. The average total in both cases is above 3 – 3.76 in matches involving the Munich side and 3.02 in the outings of the Londoners. These are fabulous numbers. Importantly, this productivity is well-maintained in the UCL, with an average of 1.89 and 2.11 goals respectively. And in the last 6 face-to-face meetings, the opponents have exchanged goals. At the home stadium, the Reds have not scored only 3 times this season, while the Gunners have failed to score in only 4 matches on the road in all tournaments. 

Parimatch News staff prediction:

We say: Both teams will score and the match total will be more than 2.5 – Yes.

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